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With Parliament voting on the Withdrawal Agreement again today it is worth a quick reminder of just what the flaws are, which will at some stage mean it has to be amended even if that doesn't happen before the UK leaves the EU 1/
Basic structure, transition period that lasts to end 2020, or could be extended by one or two years, then backstop. Both messy compromises in the absence of a clear direction for future relations 2/
I don't know anyone with negotiating experience who believes that completing negotiations in this timescale is realistic, particularly with European elections and new Commission in 2019, and new UK leadership as well. 3/
Then there's the Irish backstop, a basic UK-wide Customs Union plus deep regulatory alignment for N Ireland with the EU. It is scarcely defined, particularly how the latter will work, while still not putting up barriers between NI and GB. Defining it will take time and effort 4/
These messy compromises which go back to the fundamental problem that the UK Government couldn't agree on a future vision that was achievable, wanting all of unaffected trade, UK integrity, new trade deals, and definite exit by the next election 5/
So those saying just sign and we'll work it out later are asking us to take a huge leap of faith that this can all be sorted out in the future while the UK is in the transition period where we adopt all new EU laws with no say whatsoever. A big gamble 6/
To compound the problem the PM then sold the deal, initially, as if the non-binding and very fudged Political Declaration was in fact neither of these things, but instead delivered all the contradictory things we wanted, basically to delay difficult decisions 7/
Now there are those who say revoke, or referendum, or no-deal, or sign, are the only ways out of this mess, given the many times the EU has said the Withdrawal Agreement cannot be reopened. But MPs are rightly in my view trying to see if they can find a way forward 8/
At other times Commission figures have said the opposite - that the Withdrawal Agreement can be reopened. They didn't put it that way, but the offer to remove the UK element of the backstop cannot be interpreted any other way. So that limitation doesn't hold 9/
The basic structure of the Withdrawal Agreement - money, citizen rights, no Irish border, will not be changed. But those aren't the fundamental problems I mention above. And the Commission has always said they would respond to the UK changing red lines 10/
In my view it remains better to go for a long extension and try to resolve the issues rather than either give up, or agree the Withdrawal Agreement with problems and hope it all works out later, though I have sympathy for those in all other camps 11/
Ultimately thinking about negotiating and UK politics, I'm on the side of trying to tackle Brexit in the right way showing we can cope with challenges, rather than accepting the failures of this PM as the best we can do and living with it. At least for today 12/ end
