Thread by @WilliamCB

Quick thread about WTAF is going on at the moment with Brexit as there's a mixture of confusion and deliberate misdirection about.

This Guardian front page is part of the problem. The subs appear to never have heard of STV voting. 1/

https://twitter.com/guardian/status/1111039705922109441

Logically, every STV vote on the planet should be greeted with the same headline. They (almost) all start off with no option winning a majority. That isn't a bug. It's a feature, and the same applies to the indicative votes process. 2/

MPs are now working their way through a process in which they indicate their preference, the options narrow and eventually it comes down to a straight head-to-head choice. It's less formulaic and more mediated than STV but basically the same. 3/

Last night very clearly set the path for the coming week or so. The big winners were Customs Union and People's Vote. This visualisation gives a good picture. The winning option is likely to be one or both of these. 4/

https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/1111142557961068545

Substantively, this is of course a gigantic defeat for May, the Erg and Vote Leave's shady financiers. Their strategy in response is disruption including:
- Media narrative of chaos
- Heckling in the Chamber
- Obfuscating government role in implementing Parly decision. 5/

The most important form of disruption however is constitutional. Rather than accept the process dictated by the Commons, May has attempted to forge a separate, parallel and competing process based on attempting a MV3. This is why she didn't put her deal forward last night. 6/

The scope for this to disrupt the Commons process is clear. Instead of narrowing down options, another option keeps re-appearing, preventing a resolution. This is why Bercow is in my view absolutely right to now prevent her bringing the same deal back. 7/

That means however that we now have a straight battle for supremacy between the Commons and the Executive. This can only have one result, as William Hague has pointed out over and over again for months. The Commons will win. 8/ telegraph.co.uk/authors/willia…

(May's resignation stunt yesterday afternoon in the middle of the indicative votes was of course another part of the disruption). 9/

Remainers, we are winning. Victory is in sight. We just need a steady hand on the tiller to steer the ship into harbour while May/Murdoch/Mail/Erg etc try to whip up a disruptive storm of chaos. 10/

Given the likely outcome of the indicative votes, a bunch of questions arise:
- How will the decision be given effect
- Will May attempt to frustrate the will of Parliament by calling a general election
- Would Corbyn let her have it. 11/

Above all however there's a constitutional one. This outcome is devastating not only for May and Vote Leave but her party. The final throw of the dice, the ultimate disruption would be to get the Queen to prorogue Parliament - a coup by another name. They're considering it.
ENDS

Good thread analysing the numbers with a realistic commentary about some of the factors at play in the different factions. Great graphic, too -

https://twitter.com/cath_haddon/status/1111172769956458497

Sensible advice to MPs on how to make the process work better -

https://twitter.com/ConUnit_UCL/status/1111263416705077254

I don't agree with all of this analysis by @ThimontJack, but it's helpful in sketching out the kind of possibilities and issues that MPs are now dealing with. #MPsNotChaos instituteforgovernment.org.uk/blog/winners-l…

Another reason why disruption is important to May is that a perception of chaos keeps No Deal on the table. No Deal has 30%+ support in the country and massively more within the Conservative Party. I think she's showed she's now up for it - but only if a patsy carries the can.

The patsy is needed because she knows the consequences will be devastating and needs to avoid taking the blame. The EU27 dodged this bullet last week with their clever deadlines. General "chaos" engendered by "unconstitutional" MPs is an alternative.