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Huge pressure on the indicative votes process - which is to move to its second phase on Monday. The challenges for MPs are huge - as are the potential rewards. Thread. 1/
It seems not yet to have dawned on many commentators that the various propositions are not alternatives; but that instead that they fall into 3 categories. Decisions in each of the categories must be made. 2/
First, substance. What sort of deal do MPs support. Is it a CU, Common Market 2.0, or what? Are they content to see these in the PD, or do they aspire to change the WA? 3/
Second, process. Is a Parliamentary majority enough, or is more (eg a ratification referendum) needed to give one of these last-minute, poorly understood, options some legitimacy? 4/
And third, what happens if the chosen plan fails (either in Parliament, or to be actioned by the Govt, or to be agreed with the EU)? Is it no deal, or instead, no Brexit? 5/
The timescale is ridiculously tight. Decisions have to made by (at the latest) Wednesday. The Govt will then respond. And, if the chosen option (as seems very likely) needs a long extension, a case must be made for that before April 12. 6/
The hurdles which any successful propositions will face are huge; and there is scope for them to founder either in the face of Govt opposition, or if the Govt fails to make a convincing enough case to the EU. 7/
The necessary first step is to coalesce around propositions which command majority support. If questions of substance and process are confused (as they have been to date) it will be harder to find a path forward. 8/
For example, Common Market 2.0 and the PV are not rivals. The PV (as in the Beckett proposition) can be bolted on to any substantive proposition which wins majority support. So too can a revoke default (hinted at in the Cherry proposition). 9/
What we need are a set of agreements; on substance, process and the defaults, which can - by Wednesday - be crafted into a plan for the Govt to consider. It is a very tall order. Approached well, it is just about possible. Approached badly, there's no chance. 10/10
