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1. This seems like a good time to tweet a bit about my piece on the relative positioning of the states in recent presidential voting. We published last week but I was traveling, so I didn't say much about it here.
2. First of all, the charts that follow use what I call "presidential deviation" - I'd call it PVI, but the way the Cook Report calculates PVI is to average the last 2 prez elex. This just compares state performance each year compared to nation, so I called it something different
3. If you're curious for an explanation, see the piece here: crystalball.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/ar… - I actually use Virginia as an example and how we can say it has been "trending" Democratic, even though Obama's 08 margin was bigger than 12 or 16 D showings
4. Remember on charts that follow that 0 represents voting basically right at the national average in a given year. Higher positive numbers mean more R, higher negative numbers mean more D. Lines that slope up from 00-16 mean more R over time, lines that slope down mean more D
5. I broke the nation down into 10 regions, going west to east. All of the information in this thread is available here in my Crystal Ball piece: crystalball.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/ar…
6. First, the Pacific states. OR was something of a swing state at the start of the century, but now it's more clearly D. AK has moved a little left but still is much more R than the nation 
7. Northern interior west - very R, generally getting more R. None of these states has voted D for prez this century (MT came close in 08). Increasing R strength in the Dakotas also suggested by the loss of all the D senators there (Ds held all those seats at start of century)
8. Southwest: NV remains bellwether. AZ trending D, although not that much if compared to 00-04. CO & NM getting bluer. UT still blood red, just that Romney was so strong there (for obvious reasons) and Trump so relatively weak (+ McMullin, not reflected here b/c just 2-party)
9. South central. Can see R strength drop in TX in 2016; other 3 states getting much redder
10 Western Midwest: MO has joined classically KS-NE as Safe R. MN not as Dem as commonly though. IA's sharp R turn in 2016 also shown
11. Eastern Midwest: IL & IN represent the Midwest's partisan extremes. MI & WI came into convergence in 16 after MI was generally more D earlier. Sharp R move for OH in 16 also seen here, though not quite as visually striking as IA b/c of 2000
11. Greater Appalachia: Democratic bloodbath over the century. Look at that line in WV! MS largely stagnant while other 4 (even AL) moving considerably right since start of century
12. South Atlantic. VA trend toward Ds clear here; GA & NC trickling a bit that way too but they have further to go b/c even at start of century they were more R than VA. FL a little right of nation; SC not trending much
13. Middle Atlantic - PA a bit bluer than nation until 2016. Not much of note elsewhere - MD is the one state here clearly getting more D, the others not so much
14. Finally New England. NH remains a bellwether and most R state in region, but ME moved toward that status at least in 2016 after being more D than nation previously. D margin in RI disappointing in '16 but it's still a safe D state
15 (actually 16 b/c numbering got garbled as I made this thread). Map compares prez deviation in 2000 vs. 2016. Red states more R relative to nation than they were in 2000; blue states more D.
17. See the whole story for more detail, observations, and explanations -- crystalball.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/ar…
