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Dr Arvind Virmani
@dravirmani
, 7 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
The 2017-18 #NSSO survey results are 5-10 Standard Deviation above NSSO average for 50yrs(to 2011-12). No other data source(1 has examined) shows such outliers for 2016-19 relative to <2013-14. If there's any validity to NSSO based comparison, we should expect sweep agnst BJP!
2/ The probability of a data point more than 5 SD (standard deviation) from the mean is 1 in 4 million! The probability of sweep against the BJP may actually be higher than this because of other factors (besides unemployment rate) 😏😉🤓
2/n For the non mathematicallly inclined : mathsisfun.com/data/standard-… , en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_…
4/n More anomalies by @surjitbhalla financialexpress.com/opinion/is-ind…
5/n Bottomline: The 2017-18 PLS data are most likely the result of changing the sampling procedure & thus Not comparable with data gathered in 2011-12 & earlier using previous sampling procedure!
6/n Note: This doesn't prove that unemployment rate is NOT higher in 2017-18 than it was in 2011-12, what it shows is that it cannot be 200% higher as assumed by many un-informed "experts"! 👎🏽
7/n Note 2: The monthly unemployment rate data series from CMIE starting Jan 2016 to date is credible (but neither number of job created nor LFPR is credible) and the monthly EPFO data on jobs created in formal sector (>20 workers) from september 2017 onwards are credible!
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Dr Arvind Virmani
@dravirmani
Another economist will soon become an Expert on Everything?
2/ There's a difference between a politician(eg former FM) who is expected to say whatever helps his party and a Former RBI governor who is not in politics, but is speaking on sensitive National security Issues on Foreign TV. Once he enters politics it's completely different!
3/ Many Have answered the Question posed in T1 by saying NO, he is just giving his views as a citizen.
Read 3 tweets
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Dr Arvind Virmani
@dravirmani
#Appeasement👇🏽is easy & cheap in short run,but very costly in long run. Hard #Deterrence is most cost-effective #NationalSecurityPolicy. But it has to be credible in the eyes of aggressive enemy. Credibility is demonstrated by willingness to bear costs: lnkd.in/eGF4VsT
2/ There is >50 years of theory (starting with Thomas Schelling's Strategy of Conflict en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Sc… )& empirical evidence relating to this👆🏽 Defence strategists & military experts, play these theories out in #WarGames, constrained & guided by the empirical evidence!
3/ In contrast, our public debates on foreign policy focus on (1) Logical consistence of every sentence & action of our own govt (not of our enemies), (2) On the morality of our foreign policy & national security actions viz those hostile to us. 🧐
Read 14 tweets
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Dr Arvind Virmani
@dravirmani
1/n I have dealt with NAS, DoS data for 50 yrs; we've never done window dressing. Quality of data on informal economy has always been weak as all GDP data experts know(nothing hidden). Creating a back series is completely different kettle of fish (China has never produced 1)..2/
2/n Creation of back series is inherently difficult bcs rebasing always uses latest available data, often the data is not available for the earlier period. For 50 yrs nobody has even INVESTIGATED how the back series was made. We will now need a better historical perspective.. 3/
3/n GDP (2011-12 base) data on which suspicion was raised, was investigated by RBI, World Bank & IMF statistical departments and cleared by all of them, after investigation. The quality of this series is better, bcs it uses more, better data than was available in 2004-5 series..4
Read 3 tweets

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Zach Goldberg
@ZachG932
1/n Recently released 2018 survey data shows that few people, of any party, consider themselves supporters of the Alt-Right or white nationalist movement
2/n Results hardly change when limited to White respondents
3/n Interestingly, slightly more Blacks and Hispanics than Whites consider themselves supporters of the Alt-Right/White Nationalist movement (though the diffs aren't statistically significant)
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Konstantin Batygin
@kbatygin
Three years (and 2 fortnights) ago @plutokiller and I published our first #PlanetNine paper. But science is an iterative process, and since then we've made more progress. The result: an updated P9 Hypothesis (w/ Adams, Becker): arxiv.org/pdf/1902.10103…. Highlights in thread below.
First, an exec summary of the paper: we did thousands of new P9 simulations, and realized that P9 is smaller (m~5Mearth), closer (a~400-500AU), more circular (e~0.2) and visually brighter (V~23) than we originally thought. Pic: @jtuttlekeane Now, let’s dig into the details a bit.
For starters, some history and an acknowledgement: the Planet Nine hypothesis is by no means the first inference of a new solar system member that is based upon anomalous orbital behavior of known objects. But this class of scientific proposals has a long and uneven record.
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TEXTIFIRE
@textifire
"Their reams of data converged on a breathtaking statistic: Wherever per-person Facebook use rose to one standard deviation above the national average, attacks on refugees increased by about 50 percent."

nytimes.com/2018/08/21/wor…
Harris Media can address the issue of access, helping AfD bypass German subsidiaries to get ads through. “The team at Harris Media just places quick calls to the companies’ headquarters in Silicon Valley, sources say, where [it’s] very well-networked” texasmonthly.com/the-daily-post…
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Justin Hendrix
@justinhendrix
Landmark study in Germany scrutinized every anti-refugee attack in the country, 3,335 in 2 yrs, concluded that wherever per-person Facebook use rose to one standard deviation above the national average, attacks on refugees increased by about 50 percent.
nytimes.com/2018/08/21/wor…
Estimates "...this effect drove one-tenth of all anti-refugee violence. The uptick in violence did not correlate with general web use or other related factors; this was not about the internet as an open platform for mobilization or communication. It was particular to Facebook."
"Other experts, asked to review the findings, called them credible, rigorous — and disturbing. The study bolstered a growing body of research, they said, finding that social media scrambles users’ perceptions of outsiders, of reality, even of right and wrong."
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Alexander Kruel
@XiXiDu
Thread on Jewish exceptionalism:
Jews, who comprise less than 0.2% of the world's population, have won 22.5% of all Nobel Prizes. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_J…
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Laura Elliott
@TinyWriterLaura
I kind of really hate when people romanticise pain like this, as though it’s a transient learning tool that’s there to help us grow.
Newsflash: you can learn without pain. Emotional growth doesn’t depend on being damaged, and if you think it does then you’ve probably had some really terrible relationships and I’m sorry for that.
And I get why humans want to make ‘pain’ - a terrible thing - into something worthwhile they’ve overcome to become a better person, but you know what? I just think it devalues everyone to do so.

It suggests that the people who’ve suffered the most pain are the wisest/kindest
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