, 14 tweets, 7 min read Read on Twitter
#Appeasement👇🏽is easy & cheap in short run,but very costly in long run. Hard #Deterrence is most cost-effective #NationalSecurityPolicy. But it has to be credible in the eyes of aggressive enemy. Credibility is demonstrated by willingness to bear costs: lnkd.in/eGF4VsT
2/ There is >50 years of theory (starting with Thomas Schelling's Strategy of Conflict en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Sc… )& empirical evidence relating to this👆🏽 Defence strategists & military experts, play these theories out in #WarGames, constrained & guided by the empirical evidence!
3/ In contrast, our public debates on foreign policy focus on (1) Logical consistence of every sentence & action of our own govt (not of our enemies), (2) On the morality of our foreign policy & national security actions viz those hostile to us. 🧐
4/ Credible deterrence viz power 1/10 th our size requires doctrine & strategy for unconventional Defence, & Deterance against a power 3x our size requires either much higher Defence Capital expenditures or a 21st C Quasi-alliance to help reduce technology gap at much lower cost
5/ Multistage, Multilevel #StrategicGame: Our #StrategicGoal should be to Establish/Demonstrate #EscelationDominance ie to impose calibrated damage to enemy capabilities/positions, fully prepared to escalate damage to next stage given any enemy response to initial punishment!
6/ The internal security dynamics are harder to decide: Is the time ripe or inappropriate for removing self imposed constraints on full integration of J&K with India(eg art 370). Key issue is whether it will make it easier or harder to fight #STWjehadi propaganda/indoctrination?
7/ #India is unique case in history, kept on defensive for 75 yrs by a cntry 1/10 to 1/15 th in size, using series of clever alliances to gain assymetric advantage(from them), while our intellectuals tied us down, with chains of non-alignment, moralism & hobgoblin of consistency
8/ The same intellectual elite is again attempting to use same arguments (morality, logical consistency, non-alignment/autonomy, ec development) to act in a slavishly risk averse manner towards a vicious, immoral communist dictatorship that has recreated Soviet Gulags at home.
9/ On the other end of the spectrum a new danger: A Foreign or National security policy based on Hate & "evil labeling" is a complete dead-end & will lead inevitably to the same self defeating mistakes & failure!
10/ 6b We need to root out #STW ideology from schools & Madrassas & fight it in SM & MSM thru an organized unit(u #UDC w funds,HR), as these are critical elements of Pakistan’s #3WarsStrategy (#LegalWar, #MediaWar, #PsyOps). If this requires repealing Art370, I’ll support repeal!
12/ 6c Another element of the internal policy, is to engage partially employed & unemployed youth in other activities like social service, sports & entertainment, through youth clubs in every village funded by the Govt. Oddly 30yr old youth clubs in Bengal may provide a template
13/ The counterpart of a hardline against #STWjehadis is a soft touch towards all other co-religionists who may say stupid things but do not support former in any material way! it's self defeating idiocy to deliberately alienate latter instead of convincing them to fight former!
14/ The air strike on JeM training camp in Balakote, Pakistan suggests that #India does have a #PakistanStratgy. To use all means economic, diplomatic & military to get the world to recognize & treat Pakistan as a Terrorist State(Hint: Terrorist camp in Pakistan not POK was hit)
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