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Dr Arvind Virmani
@dravirmani
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Another economist will soon become an Expert on Everything?
2/ There's a difference between a politician(eg former FM) who is expected to say whatever helps his party and a Former RBI governor who is not in politics, but is speaking on sensitive National security Issues on Foreign TV. Once he enters politics it's completely different!
3/ Many Have answered the Question posed in T1 by saying NO, he is just giving his views as a citizen.
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Dr Arvind Virmani
@dravirmani
#Appeasement👇🏽is easy & cheap in short run,but very costly in long run. Hard #Deterrence is most cost-effective #NationalSecurityPolicy. But it has to be credible in the eyes of aggressive enemy. Credibility is demonstrated by willingness to bear costs: lnkd.in/eGF4VsT
2/ There is >50 years of theory (starting with Thomas Schelling's Strategy of Conflict en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Sc… )& empirical evidence relating to this👆🏽 Defence strategists & military experts, play these theories out in #WarGames, constrained & guided by the empirical evidence!
3/ In contrast, our public debates on foreign policy focus on (1) Logical consistence of every sentence & action of our own govt (not of our enemies), (2) On the morality of our foreign policy & national security actions viz those hostile to us. 🧐
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Dr Arvind Virmani
@dravirmani
1/n I have dealt with NAS, DoS data for 50 yrs; we've never done window dressing. Quality of data on informal economy has always been weak as all GDP data experts know(nothing hidden). Creating a back series is completely different kettle of fish (China has never produced 1)..2/
2/n Creation of back series is inherently difficult bcs rebasing always uses latest available data, often the data is not available for the earlier period. For 50 yrs nobody has even INVESTIGATED how the back series was made. We will now need a better historical perspective.. 3/
3/n GDP (2011-12 base) data on which suspicion was raised, was investigated by RBI, World Bank & IMF statistical departments and cleared by all of them, after investigation. The quality of this series is better, bcs it uses more, better data than was available in 2004-5 series..4
Read 3 tweets
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Arvind Virmani
@dravirmani
#GDPbkser 1/n Whenever the GDP base is updated for a fast growing economy, the weights on fast growing sub-sectors increase & on slow growing sub-sectors decrease. The new series therefore shows lower growth rt than old in yrs prior to new base & raises it for yrs post new base.2
#GDPbkser (2/n): If memory serves, historically avg GDP gr rt in yrs btwn old & new base yr has been adjusted down by an avg of -0.5% to -0.75%! The current revision is ~2x the historical avg! Thus reweighting would have lowered past GDP gr rt from 8% to 7% to 7.5%! ...3/
#GDPbkser (3/n) So what needs greater analysis is the rest of decrease in GDP growth rate ie the reduction not explained by re-weighting (~-0.65% ). Some points made by critics are either only partially valid or invalid. (a)Comparing chng in nominal gr with chng in real gr...4/
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