Thread by @ErrataRob

1/ So based solely on my ability to read English and do math, and a willingness to be proven wrong, I calculate @MalwareTechBlog facing 6 months to 48 months, depending whether the judge believes his contrition and the government's claim of $70k damages.

https://twitter.com/ErrataRob/status/1119373111592476673

2/ My guess is something closer to to 6 months, because otherwise the government risks creating another Max Butler out of somebody who otherwise is destined to fight cybercrime rather than commit it.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Max_Butler

3/ Yes when he was young and stupid he did something stupid. At the same time, his current life's course is one that would provide benefit to society unless the government screws that up.

4/ Also, I don't think the government's heart was in it. I think they wanted to snap him up in order to press him about real Russian/Ukraine cybercrime bosses, and were embarrassed to find he wasn't as involved as they thought.

5/ Now they are stuck prosecuting him, so letting him off at 6 months seems like a good idea for them. I think the "may 8 damage points" is just a threat to make him comply meekly.

6/ anyway, this thread is an attempt at trolling lawyers who may understand this to chime in and point out where I am wrong, because otherwise they don't comment on this sort of thing and I really want their answers

7/ BTW, to make it easy to prove me wrong, here is the plea agreement
courtlistener.com/recap/gov.usco…