Thread by @jonasnahm

China is the world’s largest C02 emitter and we can’t solve the climate crisis without China. But while it has become the largest market for renewables, it also invests in coal plants at an alarming rate. I’ve written a short piece to explain this. 1/

oxfordhandbooks.com/view/10.1093/o…

The key to making sense of China’s climate & energy policies is to realize that it’s not a monolithic state. Different government agencies and different levels of government have very different interests. 2/

Within the central government, large state-owned enterprises and the ministries that control them may push for very different policies than the ministry of ecology and environment. 3/

Local governments (i.e. at the provincial and municipal level) in particular have incentives to prioritize economic growth above all else. 4/

In practice, this means that we often see the announcement of ambitious climate goals, followed by seemingly contradictory policies and actions from various government agencies. 5/

China (like everyone) does best where climate and economic incentives align. That includes all things related to green industries. Solar, wind, EVs, battery technologies allow governments to encourage development while also following green agendas. 6/

But when growth and environmental objectives collide, results get messy. This includes obstacles to power sectors reform as local governments prefer using local coal plants than buying renewable power from the province next door. 7/

It also includes much protection for polluting legacy industries by government agencies that rely on them for revenue. Think coal mining, oil and gas sectors, and the export of polluting technologies through the belt and road initiative alongside clean energy technologies. 8/

Nonetheless, China has made impressive advances in using clean energy technologies. It has also contributed to enormous cost declines in wind, solar, and batteries through innovation and massive investment in manufacturing capacity. 9/

We have all benefited from these cost declines. Importing these technologies will help us reduce emissions. It also creates incentives for China to keep investing in clean energy. Trade barriers do not. 10/

When media reports about China’s climate progress move between gloom and doom, look at who is actually responsible for policy implementation and what their incentives might be. Domestic policies follow a logical pattern and incentives explain it. 11/

China is unlikely to take any heroic actions on climate that will drastically slow the domestic economy. Slowing growth rates and trade tensions with the US will likely make the trade-off between climate and growth more complicated. 12/

But neither will China abandon the mission. Rather, it’ll move things along incrementally, and relatively rapidly, as costs for clean technologies continue to decline and its domestic economy increasingly depends on them. 13/

The piece builds on the work of excellent China scholars, including @JoannaILewis @lingchenjhu @thomasnhale @Genia_Kostka @MerthaAndrew @benfuzi @vjkarplus @d_vanderkamp @mattinglee @yuenyuenang. 14/14