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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
I suppose it's not the same thing as voting rights *while* in prison, but seems noteworthy that a ballot initiative to restore voting rights to *ex*-felons passed 65-35 (!) in Florida last year, in an election where Democrats otherwise had pretty bad results in the state.
I guess I'm surprised that Democratic POTUS candidates aren't more willing to Overton-Window-shift on voting rights. Some of it probably polls better than you'd think with swing voters and (not breaking any news) expanding/protecting voting rights generally helps Ds electorally.
Bernie's response was pretty unequivocal on this so don't mean to lump all Democrats together. I don't get what, like, Harris is doing though. cnn.it/2XGnBI7
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
How many of the Democratic candidates could effectively articulate in a sentence or two why they're running?

Biden, Bernie, Warren and Inslee do well by that metric.

And Yang, I guess? Maybe Buttigieg and maybe Gillibrand, actually.

But I have no idea about some of the others.
There are also some candidates like Harris and Klobuchar who have reasonably clear rationales to run, but those rationales are fairly insider-y. (Harris is running as sort of a compromise/coalition candidate, Klobuchar's case might rest heavily on electability.)
A lot of Gabbard fans are saying Tulsi, which, sure! I think she does well by the sentence-or-two test.
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
I should probably re-up this now that there *really are* 20 Democrats running. 53eig.ht/2GGuiVq
The key takeaway is there's a fairly strong (& intuitive) empirical relationship between how many candidates run, and how much of the vote the top candidate gets across all primaries and caucuses. In a fields this large, you probably wouldn't expect the top candidate to get 50%+.
And under Democrats' current rules, if you don't get close to 50% of the *vote*, it's hard to get 50% of the first-ballot *delegates*, which means you go to a second ballot (at least nominally a contested convention!) where superdelegates can weigh in after all.
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
This poll actually has a larger sample size than a lot of what's out there, and all telephone polls have trouble reaching young people and rely on demographic weighing.
Collectively, between the 5 post-Biden announcement polls, the sample size is reasonably large. And at least one of the polls (Morning Consult) has a very large sample. For candidates who are down in every poll, e.g. Bernie, sample size is not the reason why.
p.s. All the candidates who got big announcement bounces (Harris, Bernie, Beto) have seen their numbers fade back to where they were before. Biden probably will too. At the same time, when Bernie was peaking at ~25%, that was pretty ephemeral so ~15-18% might be his new normal.
Read 4 tweets

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Florida Man
@_FloridaMan
I’ve seen some truly insane things come out of Florida over the last few years, but I don’t think anything has shocked me more than what the state legislature is currently trying to do to the voting rights of ex-felons. slate.com/news-and-polit…
If you don't know, FL voted overwhelmingly last year to restore voting rights to felons who've completed their sentences. Now some politicians (coincidentally, the same ones who will likely lose a ton of influence as a result of this new law) have decided to change the rules.
Instead of simply restoring people's rights, which is what people voted for, they're trying to make it so that you can't vote unless you've repaid all your outstanding fines and court fees. Essentially creating a poll tax that everyone agrees will...

*drum roll*
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Dinah Voyles Pulver
@DinahVP
A friend's Facebook comment last night: "We’ve honest to God got to unite as journalists to halt this continued push toward having non-answering PIO’s doing all the answering for our elected officials and high ranking bureaucrats" #Florida #journalism #MakeThemTalk
Just this week a news release went out about 300 dead turtles along the St. Johns River system, the FWC scientists weren't made available and the UF scientists studying the turtles couldn't be made available either
Two weeks ago, executives at DEP and water district refused to say whether board members were on or off the water board, and still haven't said who directed them removed from website. PIO couldn't provide any answers & none of the folks in the know could pick up phone & clarify
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Superbubble
@TheSuperbubble
01. I usually avoid mainstream politics, but enjoy @ScottAdamsSays’s periscope videos. Yesterday he asked some interesting questions about socialism and capitalism and UBI, and the size of the US military.

Here’s a few things it could be useful for Scott Adams know:
02. Instead of =socialists= v =capitalists= it might be more useful to view the key
social/economic conflict being between between =producers= and =consumers=.

English-speaking nations are now the world’s biggest consumers.
03. One very striking fact is 3 nations selected as examples of Capitalism (USA) and socialism (CAN, UK) are the three nations with largest Current Account Defcits.
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❃ Kassandra Seven ❃
@KassandraSeven
Florida Has Been Stealing Votes From Black People Since the Civil War. That Could Change in November. theintercept.com/2018/09/06/flo…
Felons In #Florida Want Their Voting Rights Back Without A Hassle : NPR npr.org/2018/07/05/625…
Voting Rights Restoration Efforts in #Florida | Brennan Center for Justice brennancenter.org/analysis/votin…
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Greg Palast
@Greg_Palast
#Florida’s Still Using An Old Kathrine Harris Trick To Purge Black Voters
gregpalast.com/floridas-still…
Tallahassee African-American attorney removed because his name “matched” a felon with a different middle name living 200 miles away. gregpalast.com/floridas-still… #FloridaPrimary #Florida #StopTheSteal
It’s the same exact scam that stole the race from Al Gore in 2000. I demand y’all watch this cartoon about the original theft of Florida.
Read 4 tweets
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Ali Adair
@AliAdair22
SCANDAL #7
It’s official, FL bill HB 631 is now a law and could affect a beach near you even if you don’t live in Florida. Walton County residents were out in droves yesterday (July 1st) to protest this new law, signed by Governor Rick Scott last month.
wjhg.com/content/news/W…
This new #Florida law invalidates local municipalities' #customaryuse ordinances and effectively locks the general public out of using the best parts of Florida’s beaches—unless they can afford to rent (or buy) beachfront property. Lawsuits are pending. #standyoursand
🚫HB 631 bans local municipalities from adopting ordinances to regulate public access to Florida’s beaches above the mean water line.

⁉️But first, where’s the mean water line?

💥In short, it's where everyone wants to sit when they're at the beach.

orlandoweekly.com/Blogs/archives…
Read 45 tweets

Trending hashtags

#Jacksonville #StopTheSteal #FL12 #environmental #VoterID #IDAHO #people #DeepState #FlipTheHouse #FloridaPrimary #FL2 #VoteBlue #FL05 #ARIZONA #FL8 #family #RussianLawyer #MakeThemTalk #sayfie #FL01 #MidtermElections #NewMexico #NotScott #FL26 #Oregon
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