, 4 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
This poll actually has a larger sample size than a lot of what's out there, and all telephone polls have trouble reaching young people and rely on demographic weighing.
Collectively, between the 5 post-Biden announcement polls, the sample size is reasonably large. And at least one of the polls (Morning Consult) has a very large sample. For candidates who are down in every poll, e.g. Bernie, sample size is not the reason why.
p.s. All the candidates who got big announcement bounces (Harris, Bernie, Beto) have seen their numbers fade back to where they were before. Biden probably will too. At the same time, when Bernie was peaking at ~25%, that was pretty ephemeral so ~15-18% might be his new normal.
pps ~25% vs. ~15-18% makes more difference than you'd think, in part because the former *maybe* allows you to coast your way to 1st place in IA/NH/SC and the latter probably does not. Bernie has something to work with, but might need to tweak his message to expand his coalition.
Missing some Tweet in this thread?
You can try to force a refresh.

Like this thread? Get email updates or save it to PDF!

Subscribe to Nate Silver
Profile picture

Get real-time email alerts when new unrolls are available from this author!

This content may be removed anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!