Thread by @benj_robinson

And the first pick in the #NFLDraft2019 is...who we thought it was. Kyler Murray! He came on the scene and took the draft by storm leading almost all metrics of draft position.
benjaminrobinson.github.io/vis/tc/Kyler%2…

And the second pick is chalky too! The #NFLDraft2019 continues as expected with another Bosa! 49ers picking up what many thought was the best or second best prospect in the draft!
benjaminrobinson.github.io/vis/tc/Nick%20…

And the mock drafts are undefeated in a draft that is going according to "plan". The Jets get Quinnen Williams, a beast of an interior DL, to improve their defense. Trading might have been best to recoop their trade up from last year.
benjaminrobinson.github.io/vis/tc/Quinnen…

Wow! The first big shocker! Many thought that this would be Josh Allen but instead its Clelin Ferrell. Ferrell was highly mocked early on but his stock dragged down as the process took its course. Surprising! (Sorry for only the image but for some reason the chart didn't post)

Here's the Clelin Ferrell stock chart. Still surprised by this pick!
benjaminrobinson.github.io/vis/tc/Clelin%…

And now back to our regularly scheduled programming...Devin White was the 5th overall guy in my mock draft data as Josh Allen is still out there. Off-ball LB at 5 is a little rich for me given where Roquan Smith went last year but it is what it is!

benjaminrobinson.github.io/vis/tc/Devin%2…

Another big surprise but we can't say it wasn't expected...Daniel Jones becomes the second QB off the board tonight. My mock draft data had him at 15 to the Redskins but this was definitely a possibility. Not a great QB against top competition...
benjaminrobinson.github.io/vis/tc/Daniel%…

Josh Allen's minor fall stops here. A great addition to their defense from Montclair, NJ. The mock drafts thought he would go at 4 to Oakland but this is a great situation for him at 7.
benjaminrobinson.github.io/vis/tc/Josh%20…

I thought it would be either Hockenson or Ed Oliver here and Hockenson it is. Lions have been courageous enough to take a TE in the top 10 before like they did with Eric Ebron. Here they take the consensus top TE! You were right, @thorku.
benjaminrobinson.github.io/vis/tc/T.J.%20…

And now Ed Oliver's little "fall" has stopped (I expected him to be off the board at 6). At the outset of the draft process he was a top 5 pick but instead he's a top 10 guy! Another guy who rides a horse!
benjaminrobinson.github.io/vis/tc/Ed%20Ol…

Looks like the Steelers are moving up to take Devin Bush? Do the Bengals take Dwayne Haskins next? Very exciting times for the Bengals franchinse! #NewDey

And I was right. Bush was one of my favorite players at @UMichFootball the past two years. Esp the game against Florida in 2017. Had him at 11 for the Bengals but they jump in front of them to get Bush! Will Haskins be next?
benjaminrobinson.github.io/vis/tc/Devin%2…

Zac Taylor doesn't like Haskins at this spot and goes with Jonah Williams, who I had at number 10! Bengals love SEC players and this is the third Alabama player they've drafted in the 1st since 2009. #NewDey
benjaminrobinson.github.io/vis/tc/Jonah%2…

Two @UMichFootball defenders in the top 15! Gary was in my top 15 players so going at 12 is a little past the top of his range but not by alot The Packers continue to make a strength a strength by adding a young pass rusher to their free agent signings.
benjaminrobinson.github.io/vis/tc/Rashan%…

The run on interior defenders continues! The fearsome leader of a dominant Clemson defensive lineman. He was my 18th ranked player so a little higher than I thought but still not far outside the 15-18 range that I had him in.
benjaminrobinson.github.io/vis/tc/Christi…

Chris Lindstrom is the pick for the Falcons. I thought it might be Jawaan Taylor since OT is more of a premium position but he was my top rated G. Think this is a little "reach" from a value POV since I think he could have been around later (27th overall).
benjaminrobinson.github.io/vis/tc/Chris%2…

I had Daniel Jones at 15 but this could be a good spot for Haskins if they want to take a QB. I think its the right move for the Burgundy and Gold since they desperately need a QB. Local MD kid and an ascending player to boot. Might be a defender though...

Great move by the Burgundy and Gold. Didn't have to trade up and use very scarce and valuable draft capital and got what the mocks/data thought was the 2nd best QB in the draft. Not a huge fall but he was thought to be a top 10 player and instead went 15.
benjaminrobinson.github.io/vis/tc/Dwayne%…

Panthers have their choice of offensive tackles: Taylor who was thought to go in the top 10 and Dillard who is viewed by the mock drafts as more of a mid 1st round pick. Either way, they'll have their choice.

Brian Burns is the pick! It was going to be either OT or EDGE and they upgrade their position with an explosive player. My 16th ranked player so the mocks were right on!
benjaminrobinson.github.io/vis/tc/Brian%2…

The next Giants pick might be an offensive lineman with Dillard and Taylor still on the board. I think they could have gotten Jones at this pick and Jonah Williams earlier but as a Bengals fan I can't complain!

Dexter Lawrence? Another player they could have gotten later. Giants just don't seem to understand where the picks will fall in this draft. Interior pass rush is king in this draft not edge it seems. Two very Gettelman-esque picks.
benjaminrobinson.github.io/vis/tc/Dexter%…

Vikings go with Garrett Bradbury who they must have valued over Dillard or Taylor (who has fallen the most as my 7th ranked player). Bradbury was also my 24th ranked player/2nd overall interior lineman. Maybe could have gotten him later? Thoughts @thorku? benjaminrobinson.github.io/vis/tc/Garrett…

Instead of Montez Sweat as the top overall Mississippi State player, its Simmons who goes at 19 way above his mocked value of 28. This all despite an ACL injury. Could have been a lot higher too. Another the interior lineman!
benjaminrobinson.github.io/vis/tc/Jeffery…

Broncos pick is in. Taylor, Lock, and Sweat are my highest remaining ranked guys.

Noah Fant! They help Flacco out with a TE, who he loves to throw to. Their eval of the QBs is showing here. The second Iowa TE in the first round. Quite a group with Hockenson and Kittle over the past few years. 26th overall ranked player. 2nd TE.
benjaminrobinson.github.io/vis/tc/Noah%20…

Packers traded back up and maybe here is where they finally see the offensive line value? Or a wide receiver? Dillard and Taylor are still here. Metcalf and Brown are here too as no WRs have gone yet in this first round.

Seahawks are accumulating picks...maybe this was why Pete Carroll was playing piano earlier today? Good stuff, @benbbaldwin?

The offensive tackle drop is real. Taylor and Dillard both outside their range. Sweat also falling along with Drew Lock. Savage is a late riser that didn't push through enough to make it into my top 32. Blazing fast speed!
benjaminrobinson.github.io/vis/tc/Darnell…

And the tackle drought is over! Andre Dillard is the guy. Best pass protector in the draft and the Eagles recognize value and trade up to get a player to protect the crown jewel of their team.
benjaminrobinson.github.io/vis/tc/Andre%2…

The Jawaan Taylor drop is real. Tytus Howard over him? Weird. First HBCU player taken in the 1st round in I don't know how long! Not in my top 32, probably could have gotten him later. Not a fan.
benjaminrobinson.github.io/vis/tc/Tytus%2…

Josh Jacobs was the first and probably only choice for the 1st round RBs. Not a fan of this but hey, let Mayock and Gruden lie in their own bed. Were Ravens a threat to take him? My 29th ranked player.
benjaminrobinson.github.io/vis/tc/Josh%20…

Highest remaining guys are still Taylor, Lock and Sweat. Cody Ford, D.K. Metcalf, Marquise Brown, and plenty of cornerbacks!

Ravens go with Marquise Brown. @evansilva called it! Very fast and dynamic player out of Oklahoma and the 1st WR. My 25th overall player so the mocks were right on. AFC North, watch out!
benjaminrobinson.github.io/vis/tc/Marquis…

Chris Ballard mentioned today that they had 8 guys who they felt comfortable taking in the 1st round. With this trade, he's confirmed that all those guys are off the board or the trade value was too good. Waiting to hear the trade haul!

Picked up a second rounder this year and next year? Good stuff. Colts will get some good players in the second round with the Jets second rounder, which is basically a late first, and this Redskins pick, which is a mid round selection.

And the pick for the Burgundy and Gold is Montez Sweat! Leapfrogging the hapless Raiders to get him. Had a great process but fell late due to medical news that my mock draft data has had a hard time picking up.
benjaminrobinson.github.io/vis/tc/Montez%…

Top remaining players: Jawaan Taylor, Cody Ford, D.K. Metcalf, and the corners...could the ghost of Al Davis call for picking Metcalf?

The Raiders just don't get positional value. Safety over cornerback? RB over a pass rusher or a cornerback? I just don't get it. Cooper for Jacobs and Mack for Abram? This draft was supposed to transform their team and I just don't see how it does.
benjaminrobinson.github.io/vis/tc/Johnath…

The LA Chargers have their choice of CBs and OTs...Greedy and Byron and Taylor and Ford.

And with Jerry Tillery the last of the 1st round interior defenders goes (as far as we know)...The fall of Jawaan Taylor, Cody Ford, D.K. Metcalf, Williams, and Murphy is real. Could all fall out of the first round.

benjaminrobinson.github.io/vis/tc/Jerry%2…

The first of two Seahawks picks. Could use an offensive lineman? Wink, wink...Cornerbacks are all here and tackles. Huge value proposition. If those are the two picks, Seahawks win the first round. @benbbaldwin

Apparently, @LanceZierlein has said that Jawaan Taylor has a medical issue since he was right there for the Texans. What do you see in Howard that a player like Cody Ford doesn't have?

Seahawks get L.J. Collier. A bit of a reach but experts saying he fits their scheme. Was way outside my top 32.

benjaminrobinson.github.io/vis/tc/L.J.%20…

And now the Seahawks trade their 30th pick to the Giants and they finally make a selection that makes sense: CB Deandre Baker from Georgia. Was my #3 or #4 CB depending on the metric. @PFF loved him. Steep price, though!
benjaminrobinson.github.io/vis/tc/Deandre…

Now the trades keep coming. Falcons move up to get Kaleb McGary. Jawaan Taylor falls due to medical but Cody Ford falls due to what? McGary was a borderline first rounder but I thought he was a surefire 2nd rounder. Good for him!
benjaminrobinson.github.io/vis/tc/Kaleb%2…

Pats up next for the final pick. Mock drafts had A.J. Brown to them but plenty of corners out there to be had. Greedy?

Looks like I picked the wrong wide out...its N'Keal Harry! Pats need a wide receiver and they get themselves a good one at a good place in the 1st round. Good value for them.
benjaminrobinson.github.io/vis/tc/N'Keal%…

I thought the First Round would look like this as far as a positional breakdown:
DE - 5
DT - 5
OT - 4
QB - 4
CB - 3
LB - 3
WR - 3
TE - 2
C - 1
G - 1
RB - 1

It ended up breaking down like this:
DE - 6
DT - 6
OT - 4
LB - 3
QB - 3
S - 2
TE - 2
WR - 2
C - 1
G - 1
RB - 1

As far as direct hits on picks, I was 6 for 32:
1 - Murray
2 - Bosa
3 - Williams
5 - White
16 - Burns
25 - M. Brown

I'll take it. More analysis forthcoming!

@threadreaderapp Unroll, please.