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Edwin Hayward🦄🏹🗡️
@uk_domain_names
, 18 tweets, 4 min read Read on Twitter
I have taken the 2014 European election votes and the recent YouGov survey (link) showing expected voting patterns in the upcoming European elections broken down by area/party, and projected how many MEPs they'd win. Pro-Remain parties are indicated by "*"
yougov.co.uk/topics/politic…
I'll go through each area, and give a "pro-Remain" voting recommendation.

EAST MIDLANDS (5 MEPs)

2019 MEPs (Change on 2014)
UKIP: 0 (-2)
Tories: 1 (-1)
Labour: 1 (=)
*Green: 1 (+1)
*LibDems: 0 (=)
Brexit: 2 (+2)
*Change UK: 0 (N/A)

*Pro-Remain Voting Recommendation: Green
EAST OF ENGLAND (7 MEPs)

2019 MEPs (Change on 2014)
UKIP: 0 (-3)
Tories: 1 (-2)
Labour: 2 (+1)
* Green: 0 (=)
* LibDems: 0 (=)
Brexit: 3 (+3)
* Change UK: 1 (+1)

Pro-Remain Voting Recommendation: Change UK, or Green (2nd among pro-Remain parties, and in contention for an MEP)
LONDON (8 MEPs)

2019 MEPs (Change on 2014)
UKIP: 0 (-1)
Tories: 1 (-1)
Labour: 2 (-2)
*Green: 1 (=)
*LibDems: 1 (+1)
Brexit: 2 (+2)
*Change UK: 1 (+1)

Pro-Remain Voting Recommendation: Change UK in strongest position; any of the 3 pro-Remain parties would be good choices.
NORTH EAST ENGLAND (3 MEPs)

2019 MEPs (Change on 2014)
UKIP: 0 (-1)
Tories: 0 (=)
Labour: 2 (=)
Green: 0 (=)
LibDems: 0 (=)
Brexit: 1 (+1)
Change UK: 0 (=)

Pro-Remain Voting Recommendation
Change UK furthest ahead, but all 3 pro-Remain are sadly *very* far from getting an MEP.
NORTH WEST ENGLAND (8 MEPs)

2019 MEPs (Change on 2014)
UKIP: 0 (-3)
Tories: 1 (-1)
Labour: 3 (=)
*Green: 1 (+1)
*LibDems: 0 (=)
Brexit: 3 (+3)
*Change UK: 0 (=)

Pro-Remain Voting Recommendation: Green (Change UK TIG are distant second among Pro-Remain parties)
SOUTH EAST ENGLAND (10 MEPs)

2019 MEPs (Change on 2014)
UKIP: 0 (-4)
Tories: 2 (-1)
Labour: 3 (=)
*Green: 1 (=)
*LibDems: 1 (=)
Brexit: 4 (+4)
*Change UK: 1 (+1)

Pro-Remain Voting Recommendation: LibDems to cement MEP, or Change UK TIG to give them an outside chance at 2nd MEP.
SOUTH WEST ENGLAND (6 MEPs)

2019 MEPs (Change on 2014)
UKIP: 0 (-2)
Tories: 1 (-1)
Labour: 1 (=)
*Green: 1 (=)
*LibDems: 0 (=)
Brexit: 3 (+3)
*Change UK: 0 (N/A)

Pro-Remain Voting Recommendation: LibDems (very close to pipping Brexit party for an MEP), or Green (cement MEP)
WEST MIDLANDS (7 MEPs)

2019 MEPs (Change on 2014)
UKIP: 0 (-3)
Tories: 1 (-1)
Labour: 2 (=)
*Green: 0 (=)
*LibDems: 0 (=)
Brexit: 3 (+3)
*Change UK: 1 (+1)

Pro-Remain Voting Recommendation: Change UK TIG (cement their MEP) or Green (behind, but theoretically possible)
YORKSHIRE AND THE HUMBER (6 MEPs)

2019 MEPs (Change on 2014)
UKIP: 0 (-3)
Tories: 1 (=)
Labour: 2 (=)
*Green: 0 (=)
*LibDems: 0 (=)
Brexit: 3 (+3)
*Change UK: 0 (N/A)

Pro-Remain Voting Recommendation: Green (still some way behind, but the front-runner of Pro-Remain parties)
SCOTLAND (6 MEPs)

2019 MEPs (Change on 2014)
UKIP: 0 (-1)
Tories: 0 (-1)
Labour: 1 (-1)
*Scottish Green: 0 (=)
*LibDems: 0 (=)
Brexit: 1 (+1)
*Change UK: 0 (N/A)
*SNP: 4 (+2)

Pro-Remain Voting Recommendation: SNP (Tories close to snatching one MEP back; no others in contention)
WALES (4 MEPs)

2019 MEPs (Change on 2014)
UKIP: 0 (-1)
Tories: 0 (-1)
Labour: 2 (+2)
*Green: 0 (=)
*LibDems: 0 (=)
Brexit: 2 (+1)
*Change UK: 0 (N/A)
*Plaid Cymru: 0 (-1)

Pro-Remain Voting Recommendation: Plaid Cymru (loses MEP, but only pro-Remain party still in contention.)
(NOTE: Assumed turnout the same as last time i.e. votes just distributed differently, according to poll %.)

Hope this helps. This is only one poll, but it's the first real chance we've had of playing with figures on a regional level more recent than the 2014 European elections!
Overall, the numbers look like this:

2019 MEPs (Change on 2014)
UKIP: 0 (-24)
Conservative: 9 (-10)
Labour: 19 (-1)
*Green: 5 (+2)
*Liberal Democrat: 2 (+1)
Brexit Party: 27 (+27)
*Change UK TIG: 4 (+4)
*SNP: 4 (+2)
*Plaid Cymru: 0 (-1)

2014 Pro-Remain: 7
2019 Pro-Remain: 15
Of course when we get nearer the European elections themselves, there will be more polls and an opportunity to refine this further. This is very much a first-cut effort based on what limited information is available.
The most important take-away at this early stage is not necessarily a particular voting recommendation, but the *idea* of voting tactically... and to get used to the notion that there isn't a single "best" pro-Remain party to vote for across the whole country.
When we get within a few days of the election, there will hopefully be a bunch more polls, and it will be possible to get a much better picture of the likely level of support for each party. Then it's a case of nurturing those with the best chances *regionally* of winning MEPs.
In closing: I would love it if the above turns out wildly pessimistic and pro-Remains knock the election into orbit with the onslaught of votes directed their way. But all I can do at any point is look at what we know (scant though that may be) and model it.
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More from @uk_domain_names see all

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Edwin Hayward🦄🏹🗡️
@uk_domain_names
At this point, Andrew Adonis is like a vegetarian working in an abattoir. His Twitter feed is full of lofty talk of Remain and he talks the same strong game in public - but he continues to shackle himself to a Labour party that absolutely does not share his views. @Andrew_Adonis
There used not to be any alternative, but now there definitely is. So there's no excuse to stick with a party that explicitly holds value contrary to his own. Same goes for all the other principled pro-Remain Labour politicians. At the end of the day, the party sets policy.
So yes, top marks in the "principles" column. But a big fat zero in the "turning principles into reality" one.
Read 4 tweets
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Edwin Hayward🦄🏹🗡️
@uk_domain_names
Newsnight and all the newspaper review shows on Sky and BBC this evening largely discredited the LibDem surge as a protest vote, focusing a lot on how Brexit voters didn't have a "real Brexit" option to vote on while ignoring the message of a massive surge to pro-Remain parties.
This plays right alongside the "plague on both their houses" narrative, and of course the notion that the local election result meant "get on with Brexit". The best antidote: a crushing turnout for Remain (by the usual apathetic European election standards) on 23 May!
That's of course if May and Corbyn don't stitch up a Brexit deal before then, figuring that the fallout from Brexit is the lesser of two evils when the alternative is both their parties being ripped apart by conflicting Brexit stances within their own ranks.
Read 4 tweets
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Edwin Hayward🦄🏹🗡️
@uk_domain_names
Very very very early local election take, before I get some sleep (this could all be nonsense in a few hours, so take with a Mt Everest of salt please!)
- Tories aren't doing *that* badly because in many areas they're the "hardest" Brexit party there is (no local UKIP candidate)
- Greens and Liberal Democrats seeing some fab numbers 🤗
- Labour discovering that when you sit on the fence and attempt to please everyone in a *highly* polarised situation, you please nobody at all. So they're suffering at the hands of voters putting Brexit over local issues.
Overall, a good way for the pro-Remain forces to kick off an intense 3 weeks running up to the European elections.

And with that, good night!
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