Thread by @AukeHoekstra

Recent (Dutch) factsheet shows our EV stimulation is essentially budget neutral (instead of hideously expensive as most people think).

We can talk Dutch in subthreads but I think the same mistakes are made in other countries so I made an English summary.
nederlandelektrisch.nl/u/files/2019-0…

This is about tax breaks which make electric cars cheaper.

I'll start with the obvious one: don't count the tax breaks for frugal cars that are not EVs.

Often a number of 6 billion is used in the press when 3/4 went to cars without a plug and of the remaining 1/4 90% to PHEVs.

More interesting is that you should not simply say: the tax-break is X compared to an equally expensive gasoline car.

People try to keep their monthly cost constant which means that without the tax break they bought a cheaper gasoline vehicle on which they paid lower taxes.

I was one of the earliest and most vocal proponents of this argument. I showed it brings down the cost by about 60% which this factsheet uses too.

What I learned in the past months is that there is also an additional behavioral effect...

Robert Kok (RevNext & Carbontax-model) calculated the impact of people who used to buy a tax free 2nd hand vehicle, now buy a taxed new one.

Together the behavioral effects bring down the cost of EV stimulation in the Netherlands by around 90%!
tweedekamer.nl/downloads/docu…

(Quick aside: the Ministry of Finance (@Financien) makes another round of errors by underestimating the exhaust of gasoline cars. PBL (@Leefomgeving) makes better calculations but still underestimates EV CO2-reductions.)

And @Financien ignores societal benefits.

Since taxes, energy and maintenance are all costs to society (you and I pay them all!) it makes sense to include them all. If you do that, @Leefomgeving shows EV stimulation becomes essentially budget neutral over 2021-2030.

To conclude: using facts and better calculations, we went from very expensive to budget neutral.

This still excludes:
- Less CO2 emissions (>2Mton/yr)
- Less NOx and PM and thus health costs
- Move spending from oil states to our state
- Leading position in charging industry

Thanks @nvde @Evrijders @NatuurenMilieu for the fact sheet. I thinks it's a great overview and I hope it will be used a lot. E.g. by @PieterOmtzigt and @MatthijsSienot.