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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Our model had the Raptors slightly favored against the Bucks. And now it has them slightly favored against the Warriors.😬Here's a deep dive into why and whether or not I believe it. 53eig.ht/2W1NsJo
I don't think people realize how good the Raptors' starting 5 is (Lowry-Green-Leonard-Siakam-Gasol). They were very good in the regular season, but didn't play together much. Now they're +12.1 points per 100 possessions in the playoffs in a lot of minutes against tough opponents.
I'm less confident it's handling the Warriors correctly, though. I don't buy the "Warriors better without KD" narrative, they pretty clearly aren't IMO, but the Curry-led Warriors are still a really good team.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
One interesting fact is that Rasmussen had Republicans winning the popular vote for the US House last year and Democrats actually won it by **9** points, which makes for about twice as bad a fuck-up as any pollster had in 2016.
re: Rasmussen: worth noting that founder Scott Rasmussen was ousted from Rasmussen Reports several years ago (in 2013). While their polls have always had a GOP lean, Scott was a good guy who cared about polling accuracy. The guy who took over (Ted Carroll) is…a…different story.
TBH, not a bad racket to have polls that are consistently skewed toward the GOP. Maybe once per 3 or 4 elections (2016), R's beat their polls, you look like geniuses. The rest of the time, your polls suck, but you BS your way thru it & criticize people who evaluate poll accuracy.
Read 4 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Listening to the @ZachLowe_NBA @HowardBeck podcast convo about what Durant's risk of reinjury was and whether the Warriors just got unlucky.

My 2c: While people are often too results-oriented, I think this probably *is* a case where the result suggests the Warriors screwed up.
Why? Because 1) There's not a lot of data on rushing guys back from injuries (especially if you want data on particular types of injuries, e.g. calf injuries) since NBA teams are usually pretty careful, so the Warriors' priors can't have been that strong.
and 2) The injury came early in the game on a routine play and 3) They were "all-in", with KD playing lots of minutes at a high pace vs. a very good opponent after barely having practiced.

So yeah this really should prompt questions about the Warriors' decision-making process.
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
A lot of early-state polls starting to look good for Warren & sometimes also Buttigieg. fivethirtyeight.com/features/silve…
Overall, the gap between Biden and the rest of the top tier has closed somewhat. This is a bit predictable in national polls (i.e. Biden's bounce has faded somewhat just like everyone else's bounce did) but IA/NH could be challenging for him even if SC/NV potentially pretty good.
There's a decent case that Warren has emerged as a clear No. 2.

Also a case (which I mostly don't buy) that Harris has fallen off the lead lap. Her favorables are good but she isnt a lot of people's first choice.

But let's wait and see what things look like after the debate.
Read 3 tweets

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Edwin Hayward🦄🗡️
@uk_domain_names
Results of first leadership ballot (@SkyNews latest tally in brackets, to see public pledges vs private votes)

Johnson (84) 114
Hunt (35) 43
Gove (33) 37
Raab (24) 27
Javid (19) 23
Hancock (16) 20
Stewart (8) 19
Harper (8) 10
McVey (6) 9
Leadsom (5) 11
So McVey and Leadsom are gone!
And Boris Johnson is through. He beat the number needed for an automatic pass straight into the final 2. So it's Boris Johnson vs someone else.
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BrunoBarking
@Bruno062418
1/Here's a WILD theory....
Q hints that No Name did, and Pelosi may 'FAKE' illness to avoid prosecution.
In the Bible, King David, when captured by enemies, FAKED insanity and was set free?
What if....Reagan, knowing his 2 terms were up, FAKED Alzheimers?
Why do this?
Think..
2/ King David's version....circa 1000 BC
note it was TOP SECRET MISSION!
When David was caught, he PANICked, and pretended to go crazy, drooling in his beard.
3/ WAS THIS an EPIC TROLL of the cabal, giving Rod Rosenstein a FAKE BEARD as a going away gift after his ROLE at Justice??
Read 72 tweets
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Turner Novak
@TurnerNovak
Just played around on TikTok for awhile. A combined TikTok/Music.ly is going to be insane.

No one has been able to effectively reach both China AND RoW in social at scale. Total reach is going to be huge. Wouldn’t be surprised if Toutiao is valued over $100B in a year or two.
TikTok + Musical.ly = Vine v2
Bytedance (owns Toutiao, TikTok/Musica.ly) raising $3B at a $75B valuation.

Valued at $30B in late 2017, recent private market transactions trades imply a $62B valuation.

wsj.com/articles/beiji…
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Seth Abramson
@SethAbramson
(THREAD) Yesterday I discussed all the bombshell revelations deeply damaging to Trump in the HPSCI Majority Report. But there are just as many in the HPSCI Minority Report—and I discuss them here in a deep dive into the timeline of Trump-Russia events. Hope you'll read and share.
You can get caught up on all the Trump-Russia bombshells in the HPSCI Majority Report via my thread from yesterday, which is accessible at the link below:
As with the HPSCI Majority Report, the Minority Report bombshells begin with George Papadopoulos, who has told Mueller everything he knows—which is almost certainly 400% more than we in the public know of Papadopoulos' role in the Trump-Russia affair. But we *do* have some clues.
Read 90 tweets
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Chloé S. Valdary 📚
@cvaldary
It has just dawned on me that the @womensmarch and @TamikaDMallory's inability to denounce Farrakhan is a logical conclusion of the religion that is Intersectionality. Ladies and Gentlemen, a thread:
Its been noted by many that intersectionality is a religion that contains certain aspects of Catholicism, namely St. Augustine's concept of original sin, which in this case = privilege; repentance - which means admitting you're privileged; & conversion - becoming "woke."
The religion of intersectionality has a hierarchic virtue system where those who are allegedly most oppressed are deemed the most virtuous and those who belong to groups that have historically been oppressors are deemed sinners and in need of repentance.
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EFF
@EFF
We’ve received a lot of good questions about why we believe that public servants—mayors, sheriffs, senators, even @RealDonaldTrump—can’t block people whose views they dislike on social media without violating those persons’ free speech rights. (1/7)
Although the case in which we filed a “friends of the court” brief, Knight First Amendment Institute v. Trump, is specifically about President Trump’s Twitter feed, we see this as a much broader issue.
We frequently receive reports from community activists and other social media users who were blocked from commenting on an agency’s Facebook page, or prevented from contributing to a community discussion prompted by an officials’ tweet.
Read 7 tweets

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