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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
A lot of early-state polls starting to look good for Warren & sometimes also Buttigieg. fivethirtyeight.com/features/silve…
Overall, the gap between Biden and the rest of the top tier has closed somewhat. This is a bit predictable in national polls (i.e. Biden's bounce has faded somewhat just like everyone else's bounce did) but IA/NH could be challenging for him even if SC/NV potentially pretty good.
There's a decent case that Warren has emerged as a clear No. 2.

Also a case (which I mostly don't buy) that Harris has fallen off the lead lap. Her favorables are good but she isnt a lot of people's first choice.

But let's wait and see what things look like after the debate.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
NEW POLL: With @MorningConsult, we re-contacted Dems who we'd already surveyed before the debate.

Headline:🚨WARREN up from 12% to 18% after the first debate.🚨

Most of that support comes from BIDEN and undecided.

Some big caveats in the next tweet.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/democratic-deb…
The 2 big caveats:

There is likely some selection bias in the voters who have already responded to the survey, i.e. toward liberals/Warren voters who thought she had a big night and may have been more eager to respond.

And obviously.... there's another debate tonight.
Although Warren got the best overall ratings and the biggest polling bump, CASTRO did quite strongly relative to his favorability ratings going into the debate while O'ROURKE did poorly by that metric.
Read 4 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
One thing I'm *pretty* sure people get wrong* is that Democrats disadvantage in districting/gerrymandering does not come from cities being denser than rural areas per se. 1/3

* I've thought about this a lot but am still not 100% sure my intuition is right.
Rather, it's that the bluest contiguous areas (which happen to be urban and dense) are bluer than the reddest contiguous areas (which happen to be rural) are red. 2/3
In a hypothetical world where certain rural areas were *extremely red* (e.g. 80%+ GOP voting), as red as some urban cores are blue (e.g. 80%+ DEM voting), the GOP would have more problems with districting and could more easily be gerrymandered. 3/3
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
And the sheriff's deputy initiated physical contact and *pushed Ujiri first*, according to eyewitness accounts.
Oh, and the sheriff conveniently claims that his body camera shut off the moment Ujiri allegedly made contact and the sheriff's department refuses to share video or photographs from Oracle Arena with the public: tgam.ca/2XZTGvm
This whole thing is deeply embarrassing for Oakland and Alameda County and I'm surprised that @AGBecerra hasn't gotten involved.
Read 3 tweets

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Beginning to think the CW that "Joe Biden would be such a great general election candidate for Dems if only he could make it past the primaries" might actually have it a bit backwards.
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So per @NBCNews, these are the latest fundraising rankings.
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Annie Duke
@AnnieDuke
THREAD.

1/ I was looking through twitter today and saw how much people mistrust forecasts of the election. We are pretty bad at thinking probabilistically and it seems as if once a candidate is somewhere over 60% we default to assuming they are 100% to win
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Another Planet's Hell 🌊
@cravennewworld
Don't let #polls determine whether or not you vote. Don't assume a victory or a loss based on current polling. Why? Because they are inherently flawed, and not truly reflective of a whole group of people of any sort. (more)
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