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Chad P. Bown
@ChadBown
, 7 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
1 of 6/
Trump invoking International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA)

June 10: He will impose 5% tariff on all imports from Mexico with scheduled escalation:

July 1: 10%
Aug 1: 15%
Sep 1: 20%
Oct 1: 25%

....at which level it will stay until the "problem" remedied
2 of 6/

Economics/Policy/Politics

1. Economic evidence of Trump's tariffs imposed so far is that the cost - in the form of higher prices - has been paid by Americans.

So this would mean another 5% tax on Americans, 10%, 15%...
3 of 6/

Economics/Policy/Politics

2. Mexico retaliated in 2018 when Trump put on steel tariffs.

If Mexico retaliates here, US exporters will be hurt too....
4 of 6/

Economics/Policy/Politics

3. Expect the same US farmers to be hurt.

US farmers were JUST expecting to regain the ability to export to Mexico again after the lifting of Mexico's retaliatory tariffs last week, when Trump removed steel tariffs from Mexico (and Canada)
5 of 6/

Economics/Policy/Politics

4. Expect USMCA to fail politically in Mexico...
6 of 6/

Economics/Policy/Politics

5. Politically, Trump would have almost "achieved" his 2016 campaign pledges to impose an across-the-board 25% tariff on Mexico and 45% tariff on China

(After next round, he will have imposed 25% tariff on nearly all imports from China)

END/
White House announcement...

"I am invoking the authorities granted to me by the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. Accordingly, starting on June 10, 2019, the United States will impose a 5 percent Tariff on all goods imported from Mexico..."

whitehouse.gov/briefings-stat…
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More from @ChadBown see all

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Chad P. Bown
@ChadBown
1 of 6/

NEW DATA ANALYSIS OF TRUMP TARIFFS

• What Trump's May 10 tariffs on China did
• What Trump's next $300 billion tariffs on China would do

My latest, with @EvaYZhang

piie.com/blogs/trade-in…
2 of 6/

Trump's May 10 tariffs raised average US tariffs on China from 12% to 18%.

If Trump follows through and imposes his latest threat of 25% tariffs, average US tariffs on China would pop from 18% to 28%.

Tariffs TOWARD CHINA would approach 1930 Smoot-Hawley tariff levels.
3 of 6/

With all of Trump's tariffs, US special protection CURRENTLY covers 50.6% of all US imports from China.

If Trump follows through and imposes his latest threat of 25% tariffs on $300 billion of imports, US special protection jumps to cover 96.7% of US imports from China.
Read 6 tweets
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Chad P. Bown
@ChadBown
HIS THREAD CONTAINS ECONOMIC MISINFORMATION AND DEVASTATING POLICY IDEAS

• pre-Trump Trade War, US goods exports to China were $130 Billion, then add SERVICES
• He would buy equivalent of $20+ Billion of farm products (US exports to China) and dump them on world markets

...
These new federal subsidies would be massively expensive.

Trump’s new farm dumping program would devastate farmers in poor countries and hurt those in allies (Australia, Canada, ...)

...and is 100% WTO illegal

...and would lead to Global Trade War, not just Trump-China
Furthermore, a lot of the farm products previously exported to China (eg, $14 Billion per year of soybeans) cannot simply be re-purposed for human food consumption in famine-stricken countries.

Right now, the soybeans sold to China are used to feed livestock, not people.
Read 3 tweets
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Chad P. Bown
@ChadBown
1 of 6/

Media reports:
• Trump may not remove his tariffs on China
• Trump asked Xi to shift China's retaliation off US farm exports and onto US companies

So, TWO NEW THINGS from me:

*FIRST*, I break down the 2018 US-China tariff mess with CHARTS... piie.com/blogs/trade-in…
2 of 6/

...and with data assistance from the GREAT @EvaYZhang, I show how

Trump's 2018 special tariffs covered more US imports from China than at any point since the beginning of time...

(or at least since 1980, the year when my new database starts...)
3 of 6/

The last time the US imposed such special protection against China was the 1980s, when it was whacking Chinese t-shirts.

But this time, Trump went after everything BUT textiles and apparel. He REALLY hit intermediate inputs, hurting US access to global supply chains...
Read 6 tweets

Related threads

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Todd N. Tucker
@toddntucker
It has been a big day for NAFTA 2.0, and not in good way.

Here's a thread on developments of the last 24 hours - including Pence's Canadian visit, Lighthizer's submission of NAFTA text to Congress, and Trump's impetuous launching of a trade offensive against Mexico...
Pence's Canada trip seemed like a desperate move to reignite momentum - given what Democrats are demanding (e.g. rolling back protections for Big Pharma), the Republicans don't want to give.
As I told @Naomi_Powell when we spoke early yesterday, “if you’re running a campaign with targets who won’t talk to you, what do you do? You go to Ottawa, fill the time.”
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Baba97
@Baba9773
1) News Roundup! Mexican Tariffs, AG Barr, China Nearing a Recession, India Will Feel Pain, GM, Little AOC, Joe diGenova, Minority Polling Data, Iran, Russia, Abortion Bill in Illinois, North Korea.....

Our President understands that money talks and BS walks! He decided to drop
2) a MOAB on Mexico.

PDJT has announced an emergency tariff program on ALL Mexican goods that begins on June 10th at 5% and continues to increase monthly until Mexico takes action to halt illegal Central American migration.

Tariff Schedule: ♦5% effective June 10th
3)♦10% effective July 1st ♦15% effective August 1st ♦20% effective September 1st ♦25% effective October 1st, and continuing therein until Mexico takes action to stop the flow of Central American migrants.

Details from the White House: As everyone knows, the United States of
Read 50 tweets
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Elizabeth Goitein
@LizaGoitein
Trump says he’s going to use emergency powers—specifically, the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA)—to impose tariffs on products imported from Mexico. Once again, he is flagrantly abusing emergency powers. 1/8 bbc.com/news/world-us-…
To invoke IEEPA, Trump will have to issue an executive order declaring a national emergency, and further declaring illegal immigration to be “an usual and extraordinary threat” to “the national security, foreign policy, or economy of the United States.” 2/8
While the president’s response to immigration is “unusual and extraordinary,” current levels of illegal immigration are anything but. And there's zero evidence that illegal immigration is endangering national security, foreign policy, or the economy. 3/8
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Read 8 tweets
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K. Louise Neufeld
@ninaandtito
UniCredit Bank AG Agrees to Plead Guilty for Illegally Processing Transactions in Violation of Iranian Sanctions justice.gov/opa/pr/unicred…
“UniCredit Group Banks Agree to Pay Over $1.3 Billion for Violating Sanctions

UniCredit Bank AG (UCB AG), a financial institution headquartered in Munich, operating under the name HypoVereinsbank, and part of the UniCredit Group has agreed to enter a guilty plea to conspiring...
... to violate the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) and to defraud the United States by processing hundreds of millions of dollars of transactions through the U.S. financial system on behalf of an entity designated as a weapons of mass destruction...
Read 10 tweets
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Headsnipe01
@Headsnipe011
ICE removes Chinese man sentenced convicted of violating the International Emergency Economic Powers Act

@drawandstrike @HNIJohnMiller @catesduane @rising_serpent @almostjingo @tracybeanz @TheChiIIum @hfinch63

ice.gov/news/releases/…
PHILADELPHIA — U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement’s (ICE) Enforcement and Removal Operations (ERO) officers removed a citizen of China Wednesday who was sentenced to three years in prison for attempting to illegally export high-grade carbon fiber to China,
following an investigation operation initiated by ICE’s Homeland Security Investigations (HSI) in New York in conjunction with the U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC) Bureau of Industry and Security’s Office of Export Enforcement New York Field Office...
Read 14 tweets
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Headsnipe01
@Headsnipe011
Owner Of Russian Import/Export Company Charged With Evading U.S. Export Controls By Smuggling Sensitive Electronics To Russian Military And Intelligence Agencies

@drawandstrike @ThomasWictor @HNIJohnMiller @jihadaeon1 @rising_serpent @_ImperatorRex_ @Debradelai @LarrySchweikart
NEWARK, N.J. – A resident and citizen of Russia was indicted by a federal grand jury today for his alleged role in an international procurement network that smuggled over $65 million worth of electronics from the United States to Russia...

justice.gov/usao-nj/pr/own…
in violation of export control laws, U.S. Attorney Craig Carpenito announced.

Alexander Brazhnikov Sr., 72, of Moscow, is charged by indictment with one count each of conspiracy to commit money laundering, conspiracy to smuggle goods from the United States,
Read 21 tweets

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