Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #jcpoa

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Me rushing to share all the reasons why ending the nuclear nonproliferation waivers in Iran is not only uncalled for, it directly increases the risk that #Iran will pursue activities that decrease their breakout timeline. #JCPOA #IranDeal
Block Russia from supplying near 20% enriched uranium in small quantities? Iran will start replacing that supply by enriching itself to much higher levels than they are doing now.
Block China and the UK from helping Iran modify its research reactor design? Iran will pursue the original design that produces more, better quality (for weapons) plutonium.
Read 8 tweets
The U.N. Security Council must extend the arms embargo against Iran. If it won’t, the U.S. is prepared to ‘snap back’ sanctions, writes Brian H. Hook, U.S. special representative for Iran… #JCPOA
In fact snap back is the only way to curb the Iranian regime's threat which would surely increase due to the sunset clauses leading to various sanctions reliefs as a result of the JCPOA agreement.
The world shouldn't be in a worse situation every few years, even with the October arms embargo extension. The bitter reality is that the ballistic missile sanctions are due to expire in 2023, limits to R&D of enrichment technology will be lifted next.
Read 5 tweets
NCRI-US May 8, 2020 Online Policy Briefing: The Imperative of Extending the UN's Iran Arms Embargo

NCRI-US Welcomes Bipartisan House Letter Calling for Continued #UN Arms Embargo on #Iran|ian Regime. Says
travel ban must be extended &vigorously enforced
NCRI-US May 8, 2020 Online Policy Briefing: The Imperative of Extending the #UN's #Iran Arms Embargo

NCRI-US deputy director, Alireza Jafarzadeh responds to a question about the significance of strong bipartisan aspect of the House May 4 letter on arms embargo extension.
NCRI-US May 8, 2020 Online Policy Briefing: The Imperative of Extending the #UN's #Iran Arms Embargo

NCRI-US dep director, Alireza Jafarzadeh (@A_Jafarzadeh) comments on the House May 4 let on the need to include the Qods Force's new com, Esmail Qaani, in the UN travel ban list.
Read 7 tweets
1/ In latest @BulletinAtomic piece, I argue France, UK & Germany can attempt to avoid UN Security Council clash over #Iran arms embargo. Existing embargo should be allowed to lapse & UNSC should agree on new code of conduct for arms sales to #Iran -->… via
2/UN arms embargo on #Iran set to expire less than 3 weeks before US elections. Having preserved #JCPOA framework so far into #Trump admin, unwise for Europe to risk blowing it up now. Esp as EU embargo & UNSC resolutions prohibiting arms transfers to #Houthi & #Hezbollah remain.
3/No option ideal for Europe:
-Side with #Pompeo on extending UNSC arms embargo; or
-Push back too hard against US could result in Pompeo persuading White House to invoke contorted claim it can snap-back all UNSC sanctions
-->Both scenarios likely result in #Iran NPT exit
Read 6 tweets
Great to be @MiddleEastInst for an event on #EU-#MiddleEast relations with @AlexVatanka, Przemyslaw Osiewicz and @KianpourWorld. What do changes in EU personnel and the new @EU_Commission mean for EU-MENA relations?
Listen to our own MENA episode on Europe and #Iran here:…
What are the main issues in MENA region for EU?
1) #MiddleEast Peace Plan
2) Iran
3) #Libya
4) #Syria

For reference, here is Osiewicz's latest MEI piece:…
Read 27 tweets
Anyone who tells you US can't end nuclear waivers for remaining #JCPOA projects - Arak and TRR - because of the potential for disrupting 20% of US nuclear fuel supply is either misinformed or misleading. That is only a concern, which can be mitigated, for pre-JCPOA Bushehr.
My previous thread on this matter, which was confirmed by uranium industry experts:

The concern surrounds the Russian firm TENEX. Only one project has TENEX: Bushehr. TVEL, a sister company, has complied twice in the last year when waivers were revoked.
They might tell you there's no way to separate TVEL from TENEX. It all jeopardizes US fuel supply. Huh? The US has revoked waivers for two projects where TVEL was involved - uranium swaps & Fordow - both times TVEL fully complied. Revoke TRR waiver & TVEL will comply again.
Read 4 tweets

Tom Cotton, Mike Braun, and Ted Cruz just

sent a letter to AG Barr urging the DOJ

to investigate the National Iranian American

Council (NIAC).

NIAC has an intern in @Tlaib's office gggrrrrrhh

*rockefeller funding…

Here's the actual letter :…

Who is this Patrick 'Disney' ?

This guy basically represents iran

his specialty is nuclear non-proliferation LOL

HE lobbied for obumnut's iran deal #JCPOA

We smell #Treason


I'm not going any deeper in this rabbit hole

It's all here though

Patrick Disney / NIAC / obutnut / nuclear weapons /

@RashidaTlaib / @Yale / rockefeller / #Treason

Lots of dems support @NIACouncil .......…
Read 4 tweets
We are nearing the deadline for #Iran nuclear sanctions waiver to expire. @SecPompeo will have to take a recommendation to @realDonaldTrump soon. @stevenmnuchin1 must be consulted; @SecBrouillette might be too, but not required. There are three activities covered by the waiver.
90 days ago Pompeo extended the waiver for 4 activities, including 1 at Fordow. @statedeptspox said they were “restrictions on the Iranian regime’s nuclear program.” Days later #Iran restarted enrichment at Fordow. Oops. JCPOA talking point fail.…
Three clumps of activities still covered by the waiver: Arak, the Tehran Research Reactor (this has two sub-activities) & Bushehr.

Arak poses the biggest conundrum because it contradicts one of the 12 demands from @SecPompeo’s @Heritage speech: closing the heavy water reactor.
Read 6 tweets
Happening Now - Deconstructing the Soleimani Killing: Implications for the Region and Beyond
@tamarakharroub1 @Harb3Imad @derboland @DrAbbasKadhim @NegarMortazavi
If you couldn’t join us in person, @cspan is airing the event online at
In effect, the United States was already at war-an economic war-with Iran before the Soleimani operation @derboland
Iran’s response to President Trump’s policies has been “controlled escalation” dedicated to getting the Europeans’ attention and their upholding of the #JCPOA @derboland
Read 24 tweets
❤️🇺🇸 Just when you think you can't love @BorisJohnson 🇬🇧👑 any more? He pushes for a Trump deal to replace the failed #IranDeal 🇮🇷 #JCPOA.

Thank you with love from across the pond
@BorisJohnson ❤️🇺🇸 Narrator whispers Trump always has had a plan . . .
Read 6 tweets
Thread: This E3 statement is indicative of concerns Europeans have about triggering #DisputeResolutionMechanism. Several smart people including @EllieGeranmayeh @diplocharlie @AliVaez have commented on politics, risks & opportunities. A few comments here on DRM procedure.
2/The statement has been complemented by a statement of @JosepBorrellF confirming receipt of E3 letter and confirming his role as Joint Commission Chairman. This is interesting because EU/@eu_eeas at the same time can be independent #JCPOA participant.
3/ Here is my crude overview of DRM proceedings, produced for @IFSHHamburg briefing
Read 7 tweets
[Thread] #Europe just announced it would trigger the Dispute resolution mechanism #DRM of the #JCPOA. This is a big move but my guess is many people in #DC will wrongly assume this is an alignment to tougher US position on #Iran. /1…
On the contrary, the #EU maintains its balanced position btw #US and #Iran in order to keep door open for real negotiations on nuke and beyond. Let’s see why: /2
Last episode : despite the killing of Soleimani, #Iran stayed in the #JCPoA but continued its counter pressure policy on Jan. 5th through its “5th step” going against the nuke deal. The #US asked again #Europe to leave the #JCPoA. /3…
Read 12 tweets
#Iran must not be allowed to have its nuclear cake and eat its sunsets too. That is the phrase you’ll hear me use over and over, and it is the reason the snapback of UNSCR 2231 needs to happen as soon as possible. Let me explain in the context of today’s announcement by the E3.
Following the US decision to impose maximum pressure by ending oil sanctions exceptions, #Iran launched multiple lines of effort to push back on US pressure to gain sanctions relief by trying to influence American and European politics without triggering a war.
The one we focus on the most right now is non-attributable violent attacks like limpet mines in the Gulf, the cruise missile attack on Saudi and the more recent activity in Iraq that prompted the kinetic response from @realDonaldTrump to restore deterrence, which he largely has.
Read 14 tweets
1/ France, Germany and the UK have just taken the major step of triggering the Dispute Resolution Mechanism (DRM) provided under para. 36 of the #JCPOA.

But what does that mean? A short [THREAD] 👇

2/ Per para. 36, a complaining party believing that another one is not respecting its commitments can take the issue to the Joint Commission, MFAs, and Advisory Board to seek resolution - with specific timelines for each step, which can be extended indefinitely by consensus.
3/ Ultimately, per para. 37, the issue can be taken by the complaining party to the UN Security Council to vote on a resolution to continue the lifting of sanctions. But that’s a different ball game - and this is NOT what the E3 decision is about.
Read 10 tweets
"The foolish Iran Nuclear Deal was signed in 2013. They were given $150 billion + $1.8 billion cash. But then Iran went on a terrorist spree, funded by the money from the Deal - and created hell in Yemen, Syria, Lebanon, Afghanistan & Iraq."

Flashback 2015:
"Obama likes Suleimani, and admires his work. So-called moderates like Zarif may have negotiated the deal, but the real agreement is with the extremists - with Qassem Suleimani. It’s the IRGC who control the nuclear file."…
"Combining the tens of billions of dollars in immediate sanctions relief and an end to the embargo is like loading a gun and handing it over to Suleimani. And that’s precisely what Obama intended: The way he sees it, he’s arming an American ally."
Read 9 tweets
Thread: How real is the cyber fear when it comes to Iran? No definitive answer, but there is a lot of activity on the defensive/homeland front that's worth noting? 1/
Background: It never seemed a high priority for Iran to actually, physically strike the homeland (I'm discounting those inspired by the tensions and only focused on Iranian directed attacks). Iran had even TOLD US that they would focus on military assets. 2/
And a physical attack here would require not only a serious response by us but would make our allies have to side with us and why would Iran help move them to our side (since they aren't exactly there now, #JCPOA). 3/
Read 11 tweets
❤️🇺🇸 Thank you Mr President for the link 👇
❤️🇺🇸 The briefing will be held in the Grand Foyer and Vice President Pence has arrived.
Read 7 tweets
What to expect for Europe in 2020? As the EU enters a new policy cycle, here’s to a few predictions that I’ve shared with @euronews #THREAD 1/9
The new EU political leadership overpromised by generating outsized expectations that might reveal too difficult to manage:

1. Defend EU interests vs US & China 2. Take the lead on climate change 3. Tackle rebellious EU illiberal democracies 4. Tame big tech 5. Overcome Brexit
1. The #Suleimani assassination is already putting to test the self-proclaimed first EU ‘geopolitical’ Commission, which has lost in few hours the major EU foreign policy legacy of @JunckerEU @FedericaMog : the nuclear deal #JCPOA | the EU will be bystander of #iran situation
Read 10 tweets
THREAD: As much as @brhodes and company would have you believe #Iran was complying with the #JCPOA, the regime was actually caught cheating on various aspects of it.

Let's go to the tape.
#Iran was caught red-handed trying to purchase nuclear technology and restricted ballistic-missile technology from Germany companies, as the Wall Street Journal reported in 2016.…
As @Heritage's Jim Phillips also points out, #Iran also has been caught "cheating at the margins on centrifuge development, heavy water restrictions, technology procurement, and export controls."…
Read 8 tweets
Lots has already been said on the #Iran #JCPOA announcement, but a few thoughts: A thread:

Iran’s announcement today was as predictable as it was not. Lots of us thought Iran would announce a move to enriching at near 20%. It did not do that today. This is good news. 1/x
Moving to 20% enrichment would have dramatically decreased the breakout timeline. Iran’s actions to enrich to 4.5% and exceed the 300 kg limits in the JCPOA have shorted that breakout timeline, but it still closer to one year than say six months. 2/x
Instead Iran focused on reinstallation of centrifuges, likely at Natanz. Iran called this step the last limitation , but of course, it has already reinstalled centrifuges at the Fordow underground site. Again, if operated, increased machines will also decrease breakout. 3/x
Read 9 tweets
A brief #thread on domestic implications of Qassem #Soleimani's assassination by the #US.

Key point: While the person #Soleimani is irreplacable, what he embodied is far too institutionalized to end, and will be continued by state entities and actors in #Iran (and beyond).
1) As already established by many, #Soleimani enjoyed popularity far beyond the 50% mark according to various surveys & polls conducted inside & outside of #Iran. You can question accuracy of exact numbers, but not dismiss trend/tendency showing clear majority approval rate.
2) Scenes of funeral ceremonies/gatherings in #Iran underline this, as seen for instance in

- Ahwaz:
- Isfahan:

Observers will surely dismiss these as state-sanctioned. While they are, the turn-out is very real.
Read 13 tweets
Bodies of slain General #Solemani & comrades arrive in #Ahwaz, Iran. A mammoth funeral procession has kicked off. Images of hundreds of thousands mourners packing the streets, bridge & square, is colossal.
.2/ Images of procession of #Soleimqni from #Ahwaz
images via @AlMayadeenLive
.3/ This is only in #Ahwaz, southwest of #Iran & the first leg of #Solaimani’s funeral procession. I can’t even begin to imagine what it would be like once they arrive to the capital #Tehran.
Read 12 tweets
[Thread] There are so many angles to #Soleimani’s death that it will take time to grasp the full picture of it. But let’s try to look at a number of issues :
1/ The event : #Soleimani was one of the most important actors of today’s Middle East politics. His killing by the US is the most significant event in the region in recent years. Twitter tells you analysts are in shock : “we enter unchartered territories”.
2/ The spy : Head of the #IRGC, he was the face of Iranian regional expansion in the 2010’ and the architect of a network of militias in #Iraq, #Syria, #Lebanon, which has shaped these countries’ current situation.
Read 22 tweets
#Trump admin’s open boastful assassination of #Iran's IRGC #Soleimani marks turning point. US re-written rules of engagement & exposed every American boot on ground in Middle East to possible retaliatory attacks.Trump exponentially increased chances of conflict in election year.
2/#Iran’s Supreme National Security Council meets to discuss response to #Soleimani assassination. Likely to be multi-track (incl nuclear issue) across different time lines. Space for voices in system to argue for moderated steps diminished& internal actors forced to shift right.
3/ Wrong to think #Soleimani’s assassination can undermine #IRGC capacity/ops/roll back Iran in region. He was extremely popular within the system but others in similar rank- trained alongside him- will likely take over leading Quds force. See @nargesbajoghli’s analysis on this.
Read 9 tweets

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