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Chad P. Bown
@ChadBown
, 6 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
1 of 6/

NEW DATA ANALYSIS OF TRUMP TARIFFS

• What Trump's May 10 tariffs on China did
• What Trump's next $300 billion tariffs on China would do

My latest, with @EvaYZhang

piie.com/blogs/trade-in…
2 of 6/

Trump's May 10 tariffs raised average US tariffs on China from 12% to 18%.

If Trump follows through and imposes his latest threat of 25% tariffs, average US tariffs on China would pop from 18% to 28%.

Tariffs TOWARD CHINA would approach 1930 Smoot-Hawley tariff levels.
3 of 6/

With all of Trump's tariffs, US special protection CURRENTLY covers 50.6% of all US imports from China.

If Trump follows through and imposes his latest threat of 25% tariffs on $300 billion of imports, US special protection jumps to cover 96.7% of US imports from China.
4 of 6/

If Trump follows through with his next round of 25% tariffs on $300 billion of imports, they will primarily hit the CONSUMER (final) goods so far untouched by his trade war

• Toys, footwear, clothing and textiles, consumer electronics (iPhone, AppleWatch, Fitbit, etc)
5 of 6/

For how we got here, check out and BOOKMARK my Trump Trade War Timeline (with the GREAT @MelinaKolb)

It contains most all of the underlying data and charts we have been providing since the beginning of the Trade War.

piie.com/blogs/trade-in…
6 of 6/

And if you prefer your charts in audio [PODCAST!] form, have a listen to the latest episode of @Trade__Talks that I co-host with the AMAZING @SoumayaKeynes

tradetalkspodcast.com/podcast/85-tru…
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More from @ChadBown see all

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Chad P. Bown
@ChadBown
HIS THREAD CONTAINS ECONOMIC MISINFORMATION AND DEVASTATING POLICY IDEAS

• pre-Trump Trade War, US goods exports to China were $130 Billion, then add SERVICES
• He would buy equivalent of $20+ Billion of farm products (US exports to China) and dump them on world markets

...
These new federal subsidies would be massively expensive.

Trump’s new farm dumping program would devastate farmers in poor countries and hurt those in allies (Australia, Canada, ...)

...and is 100% WTO illegal

...and would lead to Global Trade War, not just Trump-China
Furthermore, a lot of the farm products previously exported to China (eg, $14 Billion per year of soybeans) cannot simply be re-purposed for human food consumption in famine-stricken countries.

Right now, the soybeans sold to China are used to feed livestock, not people.
Read 3 tweets
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Chad P. Bown
@ChadBown
1 of 6/

Media reports:
• Trump may not remove his tariffs on China
• Trump asked Xi to shift China's retaliation off US farm exports and onto US companies

So, TWO NEW THINGS from me:

*FIRST*, I break down the 2018 US-China tariff mess with CHARTS... piie.com/blogs/trade-in…
2 of 6/

...and with data assistance from the GREAT @EvaYZhang, I show how

Trump's 2018 special tariffs covered more US imports from China than at any point since the beginning of time...

(or at least since 1980, the year when my new database starts...)
3 of 6/

The last time the US imposed such special protection against China was the 1980s, when it was whacking Chinese t-shirts.

But this time, Trump went after everything BUT textiles and apparel. He REALLY hit intermediate inputs, hurting US access to global supply chains...
Read 6 tweets
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Chad P. Bown
@ChadBown
1/
BIG QUESTION of ITC USMCA Report:

How does the ITC get a 0.35% INCREASE in US GDP???

ANSWER: Most of the economic "gains" arise through the reduction of trade policy uncertainty

Keeping policies as they are - ie, uncertain - leads to a -0.12% decrease in GDP.

(pp 57-58)
2/
The ITC argument is that locking in current policies on data flows and other non-tariff barriers reduces the risk that foreign markets will be taken away.

This increases firm incentives to invest in ways that are beneficial to the overall economy, and leads to higher GDP.
3/
This motivation relates to the seminal research of @KyleLHandley and Nuno Limao. They have published work showing how trade agreements that limit and lock in tariffs reduce trade policy uncertainty for GOODS trade.

Here, the ITC is applying that same logic to SERVICES trade.
Read 10 tweets

Related threads

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Kimberly Clausing
@KClausing
(1/9) It would be truly great if someone in the Trump White House could learn a bit of economics. Trade deficits are the flip side of international borrowing; we run deficits because we are net borrowers; trade surplus countries are net lenders.
(2/9) Strong economies tend to make our trade deficits worse, not better, since people are consuming more when the economy is strong. Here are some data for the United States:
(3/9) The Trump tax cuts, by reducing national savings due to the larger budget deficits, directly make our international borrowing larger, and thus increase our trade deficit. And that’s a good thing, since otherwise higher interest rates would reduce investment and growth.
Read 9 tweets
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Paul Krugman
@paulkrugman
We don't know what's really going on, but my best guess is that this is the fault of @ChadBown. 1/
After all, Chad has been suggesting – accurately – that Trump's likely deal wouldn't actually do away with the subsidies that are the biggest real complaint against China 2/ piie.com/blogs/trade-in…
And Trump is probably hearing reports suggesting that he was going to make a weak deal for the sake of having a deal, reports that are influenced by Chad's analysis. So it's Chad's fault 3/
Read 4 tweets
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Christophe Barraud🛢
@C_Barraud
🇨🇳 #CHINA Q3 GDP Y/Y: 6.5% V 6.6%E (slowest growth since Q1 2009)
*NBS spokesman Mao Shengyong said that the international situation was bringing “downward pressure” on China.
*Link: bloom.bg/2RVX1ZA
🇫🇷 🇪🇺 🇨🇳 French tire maker Michelin warned of declining sales in Europe and #China in the second half of the year, dragging down shares of its competitors in the U.S. and Europe - Bloomberg
*Statement: bit.ly/2EujhqH
🇺🇸🇨🇳🇪🇺 In a volley of filings, the EU, #China and the U.S. this week escalated disputes over new U.S. metals tariffs, the European response to those levies, and Chinese intellectual property practices - Bloomberg
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Read 634 tweets
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Paul Krugman
@paulkrugman
Those tariffs Trump is supposed to announce next week are the one laid out in July 2/ piie.com/blogs/trade-in…
Three quarters of them are still on inputs into U.S. business, so they're reduce, not increase, US competitiveness. But they'll also impose direct costs on consumers 2/
Two questions: will this help U.S. workers? Almost surely not. It will, instead, disrupt existing business arrangements, imposing a second China shock rather than fixing the first one 3/
Read 6 tweets
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TheSharpEdge
@TheSharpEdge1
New #QAnon Thread

8/13/18

Is This Normal?

#Qanon #MAGA #WWG1WGA #Trump #potus #PatriotsFight #PedoWood #pedogate #pizzagate #SRA #ChildTraffiking @realDonaldTrump @POTUS
New #QAnon 1860.

reddit.com/r/greatawakeni…
Normal?

The more you know...

#QArmy #MAGA #WWG1WGA #Trump #potus #PatriotsFight #MondayMotivation #Haiti #ChildTraffiking #pedogate #pizzagate #PedoWood @realDonaldTrump @POTUS
New #QAnon 1861.

Normal?

#QArmy #MAGA #WWG1WGA #Trump #potus #PatriotsFight #PedoWood #pedogate #pizzagate #Haiti #ChildTraffiking #SRA @realDonaldTrump @POTUS
Read 11 tweets
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Julie Laumann 🌎
@Otpor17
"Trump has used Harley-Davidson as an example of a US business that is being harmed by trade barriers. Yet Harley has warned consistently against tariffs, saying they would negatively impact sales"

Harley, hit by tariffs, shifts some production overseas apnews.com/6c8942f7363743…
Important issue highlighted by @riotwomennn: are tariff exemptions determined by bribes?

Corker: "22,000 companies have asked for exemptions.There is no basis to deal with them. Are they going to grant these exclusions based on political contributions?"
Trump’s trade war with the European Union is going to cost Harley-Davidson as much as $100 million a year and force the manufacturer to shift production out of the U.S. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Read 232 tweets

Trending hashtags

#SuperBowl #Budapest #Pakistan #IGReportUnredacted #Kislyak #governmentshutdown #Terrorist #MarchForOurLives #NRA #Trump #TrumpPlaza #JEFTA #Congress #ClintonFoundation #Iranian #CCP #WeAreQ #Kremlin #Sudan #GoodbyeDemocrats #IranDeal #Nunes #WikiLeaks #VietnamWar #Wikileaks
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