Thread by @Staedtler

It's an interesting question that only comes up now and again. Who does pick the prime minister of this country? The Queen? Parliament? The governing party? The electorate?

And the Queen can only invite a new Tory leader if they've got the numbers for a majority.
I'm sure that tells us something . . .

Twitter, we're going to work it out, and be the first to know.

A new Tory leader by the end of summer, and the first thing they have to do is present a Queen's speech.
But the question is, what Queen's speech will get through? Problems . . .

1. The Tories don't think they can win an election with Brexit unresolved.

2. They can't resolve Brexit without a new Queen's speech.

3. They don't think they can get a Queen's speech through.

4. If they can't get a Queen's speech through there has to be an election

5. See 1

Okay, I've solved it.

The new Tory leader is going to face a vote of no confidence anyway. It's the only way to test out their ability to form a government.
And I think . . .

If they lose a vote of confidence we're into an election, which they would have to promise a new referendum.
And the only way of holding off an immediate election is by getting opposition support, which they can only do by offering a referendum.

Because reasons. The new Tory leader will have a year free from leadership challenge, and there's probably enough opposition support for a referendum to cancel out the ERG trogs on their own benches.

It'll be a very insecure government, but it only has to survive a few months.
Referendum next March, and then a general election on normal issues once Brexit has been put to death.