I reach what may sound like three wild conclusions by the application of logic to the situation we’re now in.
I start from three premises. First, a clear majority of this (or probably the next) House of Commons is resolved to avoid a no-deal Brexit.
Third, a substantial minority of the parliamentary Conservative Party and the overwhelming majority of its national membership are now irreconcilably opposed to anything but
Such, then, are my three premises: no no-deal exit; no satellite status; no mending Tory disunity.
Assuming an almost certainly bad result in next Thursday’s local elections, and assuming
In such an election the Tories face, expect and deserve a massive bloody nose and they’ll get it. Many, perhaps most, Tory MPs know the party has let the country down and are profoundly embarrassed, braced for the punch they know
Can Mrs May survive that? The safest prediction about her has always been that she’ll carry on, but this time? Really? And with the party reeling, Nigel Farage crowing, a
So: a leadership election before the autumn. Who makes it through the MPs’ hustings
I never expected to write this, but
Mr Johnson will then lose the general election because he’s a shambles. His character, reputation and party will be torn apart during the campaign. Floating voters would want a good reason to like the Tories better than they did in 2017. I rest my case.
Did President Macron ever really mean to push through his “revoke, referendum or get out” ultimatum to Mrs May last month? I doubt it. His was a final warning and clear marker of France’s intentions. Given the reserve power of veto that France
By Christmas, then, we’ll be on our third prime minister, and still in the EU. And the Tory party? The European Research Group’s Jacob Rees-Mogg (say), Steve Baker and
Something has to give. There was a time when a strong prime minister could have made an example of a couple of
Nor are they unrepresentative of millions of voters: up to 20 per cent of the electorate. Britain (or England, anyway)
How, with whom, and as what, it is too early to say. One thing, however, it is not too early to say. The rabble in government who now call themselves the Tories are over, and must be put out of their misery