Thread by @HNIJohnMiller

There are three elements to an effective deterrent counterattack, ie a counterstroke that’s meant to deter/disincentivize future aggression.

1) They must be proportionately more expensive for your opponent to suffer than for you to inflict. IE, they must be cost effective.

2) They must focus their scope on disabling your opponents ability to carry out similar provocative actions. Striking at naval targets if they were attacking tankers, striking SAM sites targeting drones in international waters, airfields launching chemical attacks, etc

3) They must demonstrate unmatched military capability and intelligence. They have to demonstrate that not only do you know exactly how to hurt your opponents in a way that hurts but you can do so at a whim.

Such as by authorizing missile strikes during desert w/ the Chinese PM.

Iran was an annoyance. The wars they were propogating by proxy did not have any real effect on us here in the US. Yemen doesn’t ACTUALLY effect us, and neither do the umpteen African wars Iran has their hands in.

They upgraded their status from annoyance to needle in our ribs.

There will not be war. Democrats want Trump to go to one extreme or the other, to either scare away moderates if there is a war or disgust his core fan base if there’s peace.

Iran has a similar calculus. Iran does not want President Trump. They need him to lose reelection.

So, the game is now that Iran will engage in louder, more visible displays of naked aggression caked in lies for the media to act upon. Possibly armed revolts by Iran-backed militias in Iraq, for example, a torpedo or rocket strike on a tanker, more nuclear activity, something.

The corrective counterattack that occurs, as this has been Trump’s military MO for years now, will by necessity have to be far larger than what has launched before.

He will target nuclear facilities, naval assets, and SAM sites. They will be chosen from a target list.

This strike will be large enough and thorough enough that it should scare plenty of people.

Don’t be scared. Don’t let others scare you into thinking there will be war.

THAT game is uncertainty. The markets have uncertainty. Uncertaincy causes stocks to fall, investment to drop. This is the biggest weakness of Trump. An uncertain market can and will be used against him. Fear creates incertainty.

People will try to scare you.

Fuck

Your

Fear