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Garvan Walshe
@garvanwalshe
, 4 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Things getting back to @alanbeattie 's quatre-vingt banter heuristic.

Now to plug this into electoral calculus for a laugh
@alanbeattie And here goes...

BXP 270
LAB 141
LIB 85
CON 58
@alanbeattie And with Greens at 9% (no TV)
BXP 266
LAB 177
LIB 84
CON 60
@alanbeattie And with 20 of lab voters voting tactically, and 50pc of green voters we get

BXP 270
LAB 167
LIB 118
CON 32
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Garvan Walshe
@garvanwalshe
It’s become increasingly common to explain current failings by evolutionary biology, but this argument isn’t valid. Because 1/
2/ Current failings are different from (and sometimes opposite to) failing we had in the. Evolutionary biology therefore has to explain the occurrence of X now, and not-X in the past.

But then it reduces to a trivial statement
3/ This is that because we evolved, everything about us is the result of evolution, which is like saying that because God created the world, everthing we do is God’s work.
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Garvan Walshe
@garvanwalshe
Why it's relevant that @RoryStewartUK has experience of working in countries where constitutional conventions are weak or ignored altogether. Thread.
1. Pro Brexit extremists have exploited on the complacency of the British governing class to propose ever more outrageous ideas. The political establishment laughs them off as unrealistic until it's almost too later. Viz -
2. Leaving the EU at all, leaving the single market, no deal, proroguing parliament, etc. The extremists set the terms of the agenda, and it becomes the new pole of debate versus the status quo.
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Garvan Walshe
@garvanwalshe
Early days, but if this differential turnout picture is sustained it could be a very close battle between LDs and BXP for first place. Electorate looking between 55% and 60% REMAIN

(Rough estimates 2015 GE - 51% REMAIN. 2017 GE - 54% REMAIN; 2016 REF 52%LEAVE)
Turnout in labour leave areas looking very low, so overall LAB vote shares probably will be too.
Britain’s a country divided in two within the margin of differential turnout. It’s taking huge decisions based on who turns up on the day...
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Stew Elliott 🔶
@StewCElliott
All aboard the Davey train choo choo
Jo Swinson also confirmed as in the building but won't stand still
Never seen this one before but I like it
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Ian Dunt
@IanDunt
Things getting off to a weird start today. Tory Brexiter Richard Drax makes a personal statement to the Commons: "I should not have voted with the govt on Friday afternoon".
This is bizarre. Just change your vote then man. "I have let down good friends here in the House. I say sorry to the DUP for voting for a deal that could risk the integrity of our country. The withdrawal agreement as it stands must never see the light of day again."
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TP 🤟🏻
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Vamos a hablar de los #GOES, los Grupos Operativos Especiales de Seguridad con los que cuenta la @policia 🇪🇸 para acometer aquellas tareas de especial complejidad. Antes dejemos clara una cosa...

Los GOES no son GEO de segunda, SON GOES DE PRIMERA

Dicho esto, vamos con el hilo.
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Jeff McFadden
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I'm going to do a longish thread on global warming here. I will write of things I know, things I believe with high confidence, and things I don't know and am not able to calculate. I will try to make the differences visible.
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I’ve been trying to write something about what we’re feeling for about a month now. Trying to come up with something eloquent.

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Brian Cates
@drawandstrike
How do we know Trump is running deception operations? Because he's already brought several to successful conclusions.

I discuss one of them here:

threadreaderapp.com/thread/9329449…
It's amazing how many reporters in the media, even after further details come out later, never go back & question the original cover story.

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