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Garvan Walshe
@garvanwalshe
, 5 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Early days, but if this differential turnout picture is sustained it could be a very close battle between LDs and BXP for first place. Electorate looking between 55% and 60% REMAIN

(Rough estimates 2015 GE - 51% REMAIN. 2017 GE - 54% REMAIN; 2016 REF 52%LEAVE)
Turnout in labour leave areas looking very low, so overall LAB vote shares probably will be too.
Britain’s a country divided in two within the margin of differential turnout. It’s taking huge decisions based on who turns up on the day...
With 132 councils reporting turnout this morning, average turnout of remain voting council areas was higher than leave ones. If you take that as a rough proxy of vote this electorate was 55/45 Remain.

But...
The sample excluded the very heavily remain voting council areas in London and Scotland, so I’ll make a entirely finger-in-the-air guess of 57/43 remain leave turnout. So, 1. BXP, 2LD, 3 LAB, 4. GRE, 5. CON
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Garvan Walshe
@garvanwalshe
Tip for people commenting on the local election results. More than one thing can happen at the same time. Both parties are paying the price for an ambiguous brexit position, as leavers and remainers vote UKIP, Lib Dem (or stay at home).

This means...
Tories should vote for the Brexit deal. The few who think of it as “not proper Brexit” will be dismissed as fools, cranks, gadflies, swivel-eyed loons, and the party can get on with attacking Labour as anti-Semitic communists. /
Labour should support a second referendum. A loss of leave votes will be outweighed by a gain in Remain ones. /
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Garvan Walshe
@garvanwalshe
If you want to understand politics read, learn and write history. It’s a far better guide to politics than political science. 1/
2/ History teaches about power, and the people who use it. It uncovers the importance of luck, contingency and the individual will of people who hold it.
3/ It doesn’t offer rules and laws, because there aren’t any. At best there are tendencies and if we’re lucky guidelines.
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Garvan Walshe
@garvanwalshe
Britain never really bought into the idea, but acquiesced in it for economic reasons, and even then only stayed with all kinds of special exceptions. It did so because 1/
Opponents of Britain’s membership ran an energetic campaign against it. Some of their arguments were honourable (different history, different perspective on world etc.) but others rested on myths and self-deception 2/
The biggest myth was that they were only joining a “common market” and political union was subsequently foisted upon an unwilling British public.

In fact the debate in the 60s and 70s involved plenty of discussion of its role bringing peace to Europe 3/
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