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"This suggests that latent knowledge regarding future discoveries is to a large extent embedded in past publications" ... oh, well ...
When it comes to my form of mapping, then if you look at the x-axis (evolution) ... 
... it is derived from this evolution curve (NB ... this is not diffusion. To understand the difference, a virus diffuses in society but it also evolves - two different related but related processes)
... the curve itself being derived from changes in past publications (i.e. text analysis of past publications)
... which is also how I created the cheat sheet.
Now, when it comes to "anticipation of change" then ...
Now, when it comes to "anticipation of change" then ...
... I'm afraid the issues of anticipation are a bit counterintuitive. In the genesis phase, we can actually do a reasonable job of anticipating a change but not what that change will be.
In the more transitional phase (i.e. product vs product battles) then beyond broad statements of "it will evolve" and despite increasing certainty over what it is, we can't do a good job of anticipating WHAT will happen or WHEN. Governed strongly by individual actors actions.
In the transition to the more commodity / utility phase which also happens to be the most impactful stage (e.g. Cloud, how else do you think I did my "magic" at Ubuntu) then we can do a decent job of anticipating WHAT will happen and through weak signals - WHEN it will happen.
So, roughly speaking - and this is quite an advanced topic - then when it comes to anticipation ...
X : How does this connect to the 3 horizon model.
Me : It doesn't, well not very well. The problem with this is that if I take a map and look at horizons (e.g. Fotango in 2005) ...
Me : It doesn't, well not very well. The problem with this is that if I take a map and look at horizons (e.g. Fotango in 2005) ...
... and then simply roll the map forward to a future time, then the horizons have changed where they are on the map i.e. where the horizons are depends upon where you are currently standing.
... you can't neatly fit horizons into mapping. It's the same with pioneer - settler - town planner. The horizon model is really a personal choice, you can use it with mapping but it's not a simple case of genesis is this horizon, product is that etc, It's far more fluid.
