Thread by @wesbeal

When you are denied the opportunity to freely elect your government-
What is to be done?

When your government fails to meet even the most basic of needs-
What is to be done?

When your government is willing to brutalize its people, kill to remain in power-
What is to be done?

Fearing the brutality, some say, "Let's wait"
"When they run out of money, it'll get better."

This has been said for 39 years.

Fearing the brutality, some say, "Let's wait"
"When this generation passes, it'll get better."

The next generation is buying Lamborghini's.

But before I go further, I must say the truth:

I'm not a Zimbabwean. I'm not in Zimbabwe. I will not suffer the brutality of the regime alongside you.

I can analyze, form opinions, and share those with you. What you do with that is up to you.

Can't say if I should continue.

I've got around a dozen more tweets written up; observations on how I'd see things playing out, but though they are just my thoughts, today at least I'm inclined to wait to share until I'm asked.

First, I do not believe Zimbabweans can bring about the changes they want through an armed struggle.

The Zimbabwean people are too out-gunned for such to be a realistic option at this time.

My advice to anyone is to put any notions of such out of their minds.

Despite utterances to the contrary, in Zimbabwe it IS perfectly legal to demonstrate for the removal of your government.

Your constitution makes clear that power is derived from the people. It also provides methods for removing a government without an election.

There are lessons in Sudan. Sustained demonstrations that grow to a scale not seen before, with broad and deep public support, can topple Zanu-PF.

They must be sustained through what will most certainly be a brutal crackdown.

Your history shows you what tactics you will face.

Yes, people will be gunned down in the streets, but not just there, and not just those who choose to demonstrate.

Zanu has always seen it key terrorize the communities where dissent is coming from. Attack the community the demonstrators are from, to accomplish three things:

One, make the punishment for demonstrating more than a person can bear. It's one thing to be prepared to sacrifice yourself for what you believe in, but can you sacrifice your mother? Your sister? Your child?

Two, rob the "dissidents" of safe haven and comfort.

And three, drive a wedge between the demonstrators and their community. Make the suffering such that the community does not support the demonstrators continued actions.

Zanu often fails at this goal, but it is key to remain resolute and in solidarity for success to be achieved.

To win, requires bravery, resolve, and most of all heartbreak.

If you can suffer 10 deaths on day 1, and go back out the next day.
If you can suffer 100 deaths on day 2, and go back out the next day.
If you can suffer 1000 deaths on day 3, and go back out the next day.

Many will cry out - plead with the world to intervene.

Beware of intervention. Intervention stops change.

You don't achieve your goal when the world intervenes. The threat of intervention will come first from South Africa and the SADC. It will offer a lifeline to Zanu-PF.

You achieve your goal, not when the world decides it has had enough, but when your resolve to demonstrate surpasses the willingness of the security forces to allow the brutality to continue.

There will be concerted efforts by the government, some almost certainly successful, to infiltrate the demonstrations, engage in violent and unlawful acts, with the aim of dividing public opinion against the demonstrators.

It will be a constant struggle to guard against and avoid the infiltrators, and as well to communicate the true values and aims of the demonstrators to the Zimbabwean people.

This is done through creativity, communication, and by repeated example.

This is a long struggle.

Sustained demonstrations that grow to be massive, with broad public support, can topple Zanu-PF.

Over time support will swing between the government and the demonstrators. Many will favor trying to get along over the bloodshed. If sustained, support will find the demonstrators.

What is to be done? "Let's wait" is no solution. The future holds more of the same.

When your resolve to demonstrate surpasses the willingness of the security forces to allow the brutality to continue, the future changes.

However the choice, and the consequences, are up to you.

I must repeat to Zimbabweans the truth:

I am not a Zimbabwean. I am not in Zimbabwe. I will not suffer the brutality of the regime alongside you.

What I have to say is a product of my values, but I can't tell you whether it's worth it. That's up to you.

This is one line of thought - the start of a discussion - on how the change I hear people asking for might be achieved.

There are others, I'm sure.