A small experiment to map buy/sell pressure by looking at raw ledger transaction data. It is based on $XRP transactions to and from 77 of the most active exchanges. 
- Blue is deposits from non-exchanges minus withdrawals to the same type of accounts.
- Red is deposits made between the exchanges (excluding self-exchange/hot<>cold transactions)
- Black is the sum of the two
Interactive: plot.ly/~Silkjaer/59/#/
- Red is deposits made between the exchanges (excluding self-exchange/hot<>cold transactions)
- Black is the sum of the two
Interactive: plot.ly/~Silkjaer/59/#/
There are interesting stories to tell about the blue line spikes in both directions. Especially the 1.47 billion withdrawal spike of March 2018 I could write a lengthy story about – the trail begins here: rs8EfRvaQ71vmxfsyh3S16oWxVkrm8eu1m
OK. Here goes the 1.5B theory. Please note it is highly speculative.
Starting from a big withdrawal of 1.5B XRP from Coincheck to rs8EfRvaQ71vmxfsyh3S16oWxVkrm8eu1m in March 2018, I tried to follow the leads to see where the money are going, and where they came from.
Starting by looking at where the funds are going, follow the 1.5B from the lower left corner. I made the graph on July 2, and as it shows, the funds were moved to new smaller accounts, and then off to exchanges.
So since March 2018 ~600M has been moved to exchanges, leaving ~900M in the accounts. That is on average 1M per day. But where did the funds come from?
Looking at deposits to Coincheck, there is only one likely source to that kind of amounts, rHbw8qLiKFya7atqxmMEegnh7uCoSZ23nJ, making a deposit of 1.5B in September 2017. An account closely related to accounts known as ~LBImaster, ~LBIclient, ~reliefcurrency and ~COBRA1104.
This is where the story takes a turn from being facts to being theory, please read it as such. ~LBImaster activated rs8E, the 1.5B recipient in March 2018, but was also closely connected to rHbw8, the depositor of the 1.5B in September 2017.
Working backwards: rHbw8 received ALL funds from ~reliefcurrency (remember the name, Relief). ~reliefcurrency was activated by ~COBRA1104 and received funding directly ~COBRA1104 (860M), ~LBIclient (700K) and Ripple (1.4B).
~COBRA1104 was funded by by ~LBIclient (11M), ~LBImaster (4M) and Ripple (1.2B) but have since then returned 13.5M back to ~LBImaster. ~LBIclients and ~LBImaster was created by moving funds from two accounts, known as ~NakataClientXRPs and ~NakataRIpples.
The CEO of "Relief Investment Co., Ltd" is/was Yoshihiro Nakata (remember ~reliefcurrency?). He was also director of a related company, "48 Holding Co., Ltd" from 2015 to 2016. The latter is likely the reason for the huge amount of funds coming from Ripple.
48 Holdings was the company behind a token called Clover Coin, and as far as I can understand, these tokens had to be bought using FIAT and backed by multiple assets, one of which were XRP. Clover Coin does not exist anymore.
The Japanese crypto community may be able to shed more light on Clover Coin and what happened to the companies involved. Other sources to some of this information: sapporo-kasoutuuka-toushi.com/48holdings-rip… and 2ch.live/cache/view/cry…
So, back to the chart, as this is only one learning from it. Sep 2017 spike (big deposits), correlates with Mar 2018 spike (big withdrawal). Wouldn't it be fun if there were a correlation between e.g. the May 2017 deposit spike of 830M and the May 2019 withdrawal spike of 837M?
@threadreaderapp unroll
@threadreaderapp Looking at the spike of May 2017, it was funds moving from Poloniex to Coincheck. The withdrawal spike of May 2019 is a data error, as it looks like a cold wallet move of 1B. Data in interactive chart updated to reflect.
