,
8 tweets,
2 min read
Read on Twitter
(1 of 3) Some of you ask, "Shouldn't media report that Beto's polling and fundraising are down?" Answer: yes. But it's part of a larger context in which (a) the field expanded by 10 new candidates after Beto announced, leading to fundraising and polling drop-offs for everyone;...
(2 of 3) Beto's first-quarter fundraising ($9.4M) was already more modest than media pretends (and $6.1M of that $9.4M came in the first day), meaning that in all of the first quarter *except* Day 1 Beto raised $3.3M, compared to $3.6M in the second quarter); and polls suggest...
(3 of 3) that *no one* saw *big* post-debate poll/fundraising bumps *except* 2 of the 24 candidates (Warren, Harris), with 3 leaders (Biden, Sanders, Buttigieg) dropping in polls as much/more than O'Rourke and other supposed debate winners (Castro, Booker) not getting much boost.
(PS) The 1Q-to-2Q narrative:
1) The field doubled in size.
2) Almost everyone was hurt by that in polling and fundraising.
3) Everyone but Harris/Warren have dropped in polls; only 5 of 24 candidates have major fundraising.
4) O'Rourke is no different from the rest of the field.
1) The field doubled in size.
2) Almost everyone was hurt by that in polling and fundraising.
3) Everyone but Harris/Warren have dropped in polls; only 5 of 24 candidates have major fundraising.
4) O'Rourke is no different from the rest of the field.
(PS2) Media created outsized expectations for Beto; when he failed to meet them by "just" being atop the second tier of candidates rather than in the first tier, and by suffering in polling/fundraising as the field grew like everyone, they said he had a unique problem. He didn't.
(PS3) The poll drops for Biden, Sanders, and Buttigieg; the Warren and Harris poll gains; and Booker and Castro not being able to translate debate performances into polling or fundraising are the *big* stories. Beto had a chance to be first tier and hasn't taken it yet—that's it.
(PS4) I maintain that Biden—like Clinton in '16—is experiencing early name-recognition boosts in the face of more-energized support for his opponents, and Sanders and Buttigieg are hitting/have hit a ceiling. So besides Warren and Harris, right now *every* campaign has a problem.
(PS5) So the "horse race" stories should be:
(1) Will Castro, Booker, Klobuchar or O'Rourke find a way to break out as Warren and Harris did?
(2) Can Biden, Sanders, and Buttigieg re-energize their campaigns?
(3) How quickly does the bottom 15 of the field winnow down, and when?
(1) Will Castro, Booker, Klobuchar or O'Rourke find a way to break out as Warren and Harris did?
(2) Can Biden, Sanders, and Buttigieg re-energize their campaigns?
(3) How quickly does the bottom 15 of the field winnow down, and when?
