Thread by @ArmsControlWonk

The reaction to this (huge) story illustrates one of the practical dangers of not accepting the reality of North Korea as a nuclear power. We should be *happy* with @Huawei. A short thread. 1/11

https://twitter.com/nakashimae/status/1153270363503104002

(Oh FYI: It isn't clear to me that @Huawei has violated any sanctions. Orascom has an exemption for Koryolink and its not clear to me when @huawei did what.) 2/11
nknews.org/2018/09/un-gra…

North Korea's leaders appear to rely on a special channel on their cellphone network, Koryolink, to carry encrypted communications. This network is run by an Egyptian company, Orascom. 3/11
nknews.org/2015/08/inside…

If Kim Jong Un orders up a nuclear war with the United States, chances are he'll do it with his cell phone over this network. (Fun fact: @Ranger_Smeyer and I recently noticed that North Korea began blurring Kim's phone in images.) 4/11

What was @Huawei doing? According to @northkoreatech, Huawei was helping improve encrypted leadership communications. This is something that is in our interest. 5/11
38north.org/2019/07/mwilli…

Here is where it makes a difference whether we accept the reality of North Korea's nuclear deterrent or not. Everything we know about deterrence suggests that it is in our interest for Kim Jong Un to feel confident in his communications. 6/11

This is the fundamental insight of Tom Schelling and others who warned about the reciprocal fear of surprise attack. In classic Tom fashion, he likened the mutual danger of the nuclear age to coming upon an armed burglar in the dead of night. 7/11
rand.org/content/dam/ra…

That last line is the whole dilemma of the nuclear age: "Self defense" is ambiguous, when one is only trying to preclude being shot in self defense. A scared Kim Jong Un, I am confident Tom would say, is every bit as dangerous to us as his scared burglar. 8/11

I illustrated this very problem in The #2020Commission. A key catalyst for the nuclear war is that Kim Jong Un's cell phone stops working because the network overloads (as often happens with cell phone networks in crises.) 9/11
2020commission.com

In The #2020Commission, Kim doesn't know why his cellphone stops working. He faces a terrible decision: If the outage represents an attack on his communications, this is his last chance to use nuclear weapons to repel what he thinks is a US invasion. He gives the order. 10/11

Accepting that North Korea's nuclear weapon deter us, means accepting a shared interest in crisis stability and mutual survival. That means accepting that is *our* interest for companies to help Kim to feel confident that he can communicate with his nuclear forces. 11/11