, 6 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
1/ I'm old enough not to remember when I became interested in outcomes created by feedback. I do remember talking about feedback with an investor named Michael Larson in the early 1990s. He convinced me to read "The Alchemy of Finance" in which Soros describes "reflexivity."
2/ In 1994 Soros admitted: “I did not discover reflexivity. Earlier observers recognized it, or at least aspects of it, often under a different name. Knight (1921) explored the difference between risk and uncertainty….” Also Keynesian Beauty contests. georgesoros.com/2014/01/13/fal…
3/ It is possible my interest in feedback arose when I was trying to understand how Jimi Hendrix used feedback in his music. I think about feedback whenever I think about outcomes in investing and business generally. It is a core part of work being done at The Santa Fe Institute.
4/ When you see a distribution that looks like a power law or is a power law, it is a signature of feedback operating somewhere. For example, the distribution of venture capital financial exits reflects feedback with positive outcomes (i.e., it is driven by grand slams results).
5/ Many aspects of life benefit from feedback with positive outcomes and one of them is skill. For example, if you get lucky early in life you can via feedback become more skilled (i.e., early luck attracts opportunity and people who help the lucky person become more skilled).
6/ "Professor Brian Arthur’s work on increasing returns [was] mind-blowing,” Bill Gurley recounts. 'I often tell people that this has had a bigger impact on how I think about the world than anything else I have ever read.'" santafe.edu/news-center/ne…
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