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Shall we work it out again when election day is going to be?
This might get complicated. let's start with the easy one first.
The opposition tables a vote of no confidence. The earliest they can do that is September 3rd.
The vote would be next day, September 4th.
There would follow two weeks when it could be overturned.
The opposition tables a vote of no confidence. The earliest they can do that is September 3rd.
The vote would be next day, September 4th.
There would follow two weeks when it could be overturned.
If the two weeks expired, an election proclamation would be made on September 19th.
Parliament would need a couple of working days to tidy its affairs.
Polling day would be September 26th plus 5 weeks.
Polling day - October 31st
Parliament would need a couple of working days to tidy its affairs.
Polling day would be September 26th plus 5 weeks.
Polling day - October 31st
Is it possible to have an election any sooner than October 31st by any means?
Yes. By removing the two weeks cooling off period between a vote of no confidence and the election proclamation.
But only if the government tabled a motion for a general election.
Yes. By removing the two weeks cooling off period between a vote of no confidence and the election proclamation.
But only if the government tabled a motion for a general election.
If the government chose to initiate an election, the earliest it could be done would be.
Tabled September 3rd. Voted September 4th. A few days to tidy its affairs.
General election October 17th.
Tabled September 3rd. Voted September 4th. A few days to tidy its affairs.
General election October 17th.
Earliest election by government initiative: October 17th
Earliest election by no confidence: October 31st
Earliest election by no confidence: October 31st
There's something else as well. Parliament is due to return on September 3rd, and then it goes away again on September 12th for party conferences, and it doesn't come back until October 7th.
What it means is that the government has got one week to initiate a general election before Brexit day.
If it doesn't seize the moment that first week back in September, it will no longer be possible to have an election before Brexit day, as meant to be October 31st
If it doesn't seize the moment that first week back in September, it will no longer be possible to have an election before Brexit day, as meant to be October 31st
So if they leave it any later than the first week back, or if they wait for a vote of no confidence to do it for them, they will either be hitting an election on Brexit day itself, or after Brexit day has just happened.
Either way that's an election they can't win.
Either way that's an election they can't win.
The Tories now find themselves in something of a dilemma.
You can make Brexit happen, but only at the price of handing the country to Jeremy Corbyn.
You can make Brexit happen, but only at the price of handing the country to Jeremy Corbyn.
The Tories only have one way out of this. They can initiate a general election, and ask Europe for an extension to cover it. Then they can put a referendum in their manifesto.
Oh yes. And sack Boris Johnson.
Oh yes. And sack Boris Johnson.
