Thread by @Staedtler

There aren't many possibilities.

An election by vote of confidence. Earliest polling day October 31st.

Everyone panics, the government loses control and reaches polling day in national crisis.

Parliament is only back for one week in September before it disappears again for party conferences, and it only comes back again on October 7th.
So?
So if the election is not called in that first week in September, then the earliest election is mid November

The government is now in permanent crisis. And as the economy starts to react to that crisis, it's only going to grow and spread.
So I think the Tories have to initiate an election as early as possible.

The earliest election day is October 17th. Any later than that and Brexit will be out of control in full blown chaos. And they can't win an election like that, and they know it.
So it has to be October 17th, and that means they have to initiate it themselves.

Corbyn will never put a vote of no confidence because Johnson is going to call an election himself.
We know the Lib Dems are going to offer another referendum. We know the Brexters are going to demand the full Brexit. Labour will piddle around neither here nor there

The dilemma for the Tories is what to put in their manifesto. Brexit? No Brexit? Referendum? Whatever they do half their votes are going elsewhere, either to the Brexit party on one side or the Lib Dems on the other.