Profile picture
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
, 3 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Disagree with this. Pollsters ought to publish their "outliers" unless literally they think there's a bug in how their results were collected or processed. Kudos to @MonmouthPoll for publishing a poll that they knew was probably going to differ from other results.
Failure to publish "outliers" yields cases like this in Australia, where polls that showed the right result were never published. Pollster herding is a way bigger problem than the occasional outlier.
smh.com.au/politics/feder…
Now, of course, there wasn't much excuse for the media to focus so much on that one n=298 Monmouth poll, which contradicted other data. Lots of blame to go around there. But two wrongs (the media overhyping individual polls and pollsters file-drawering polls) don't make a right.
Missing some Tweet in this thread?
You can try to force a refresh.

Like this thread? Get email updates or save it to PDF!

Subscribe to Nate Silver
Profile picture

Get real-time email alerts when new unrolls are available from this author!

This content may be removed anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @NateSilver538 see all

Profile picture
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Also, re: age/Biden. It seems noteworthy that there *doesn't* seem to have been much in the way of an organized effort by party elites/establishment Democrats to come up with an alternative to Biden that they consider "electable" but not too old.
Like, I halfway expect to wake up to a Politico story one morning full of blind quotes about how such-and-such influential Democrats think Biden is too old, Warren/Sanders are too left, Harris might be OK but seems to be flailing, therefore they're all gonna back X (Booker?).
But that hasn't happened. Then again, Harris was getting a lot of establishment support, and seemed to be in decent shape until recently. The next couple weeks seem quite important for her, because there's an inflection point where donor/elite support could start to go elsewhere.
Read 4 tweets
Profile picture
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
My radical proposal: Candidates who want to raise concerns about Biden's (or Sanders's) age should... actually talk about their age, and not try to bring it up coyly though euphemism or inference, etc. 53eig.ht/33L4mBk
If you want to get *somewhat* cute:

1) The Swalwell "pass the torch" argument is a fairy polite way to bring up age;
2) You can certainly point toward how old Trump is and claim he shows signs of decline, etc.

But I wouldn't get much cuter than that. Be fairly direct.
I'd also say stuff like: "We don't just want someone who can win the election, but also someone who can be an effective president for 8 years, through 2029." And then mention that Biden would be 86 at the end of his second term, and Sanders would be 87.
Read 3 tweets
Profile picture
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Our post debate polling is up!
53eig.ht/2kJgEZ0

There are a variety of questions in here, but...

Clearest overall winner: Warren

Mostly good news: Buttigieg, Booker, Yang, Beto, Klobuchar

Mostly bad news: Biden, Castro, Bernie, Harris
Of the top 4 candidates going in, Warren was the only one who emerged with more voters considering her than before the debate. Note: with our polling partner @Ipsos, we re-polled the same voters both before and after the debate, so this data is less noisy than usual.
@Ipsos Warren also got the highest overall grade from voters for her performance, while Castro got the lowest. Relative to their pre-debate favorability ratings, Beto and Booker also qualify as over-performers and Biden and Sanders as under-performers.
Read 4 tweets

Related threads

Profile picture
WeThePeople #ForTheMany #DangerousHero #JC4PM2019
@gaurangmorjaria
#poll If there was a Snap General Election, who would you vote for?

(For other parties, please vote them in comments)

Please RT once Voted! 😃
1997: Blair 13.5mn votes
1997-2015: Blairites/ Others lost 180 seats & 5mn voters
2017: Corbyn 12.8mn votes/ Gained 32

2019:

add first time voters (75% of those who vote, vote for Labour)

Subtract 2% of the population, 80% of whom vote Tories!

Labour Landslide on the cards!
Lab’s share of vote could be 14.5+mn

Once we take into account first time voters- 16 or under at 2017

first time voters -never voted before, disenchanted by Blair years whilst

removing Tory support -loss of voters due to old age

=> Lab will gain 100+ seats from Tories alone
Read 32 tweets
Profile picture
Sotiri Dimpinoudis ❁‏
@sotiridi
#Poll: Do you think Religious freedoms Laws are killing western Counties? And do you think it was wrong for us to give it to them?
By the way these pictures are from France.... Before you think voting on NO.
And here is a Video of them blocking a street and praying and blasting their bullshit on a speaker in France. We have become to tolerable in the west for their religion. There are also more Mosques being build then churches in Europe...
Read 4 tweets
Profile picture
Mike Memoli
@mikememoli
.@ChrisCoons, speaking at Delaware Dems Dinner: Joe Biden "has shaped history. ... a great change maker. ... along with Barack Obama led the greatest administration in our lifetimes."
Coons, to a very crowded ballroom in Dover. "We know Joe. Literally every single one of us." #literally
(Coons holds the seat Biden held for 36 years, two weeks. He's up for reelection in 2020)
Read 26 tweets
Profile picture
Seth Abramson
@SethAbramson
(POLL) I need your advice: some people like the new profile pic, and think I should keep it; some like it but think it doesn't fit the content of the feed; some don't like it and think it doesn't fit the content of the feed. Which category are you in, if I can ask? Poll is below:
Whoa... OK. This seems to be the most divisive thing ever posted on my feed. Right now it's running 52% keep, 48% change, almost like presidential election results in terms of closeness. Those who like it seem to love it; those who want it gone think it could bring down the feed.
If the vote stays this way, my thinking is this: I put it on Instagram as my avatar (IG: [@]seth.abramson). This is certainly my favorite profile pic since I've been on Twitter, but ultimately the ethos of this feed has always been that the fight takes precedence over everything.
Read 3 tweets
Profile picture
Kambree Kawahine Koa
@KamVTV
Sean Hannity was Right. Hillary Clinton is the queen of "Fix It"
Her hands are in EVERYTHING and everyone goes down, but her.
👇🏽Here is few
Chinagate: Nuclear secrets go to China on her husband’s watch.
The cattle futures: Hillary as commodity trader extraordinaire.
Larry Lawrence: How did a fat cat donor get buried in Arlington National Cemetery without war experience?
Read 17 tweets
Profile picture
Sarah DZ
@pitchblacksugar
😱😱#poll #thread😱😱

🔥Thread of poll for🔥

'THE THIRTY DARK SECRET'
1. Cheated in relationships 🙊
2. Caught red-handed😂
Read 26 tweets

Trending hashtags

#ThiefTDP #LAWYERED #Intel #camera #ThreadnoughtBingo #FOAMed #ISWVBingo #saint #God #budget #WeThePeople #FearTheBeard #money #RippleEffect #control #yougov #PulpRev #Trump #2ndAmendmentMilitia #corporations #MayMustGo #USA #Outliers #think #Japan
Follow Us on Twitter!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!