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Mujtaba Rahman
@Mij_Europe
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Really? Who have you spoken to in the Commission? Council? European Parliament? Which Perm Reps? What about MS? Elysee? Chancellery? Foreign and Finance Ministries? Other EU capitals? What about in UK? Which Cabinet Ministers? MPs? Whitehall? HMT, FCO? Cab Office? No 10? Others?
The answer, I suspect, is none. Like much of Brexit twitter, you have ludicrously strong opinions, based on none of your own research or information whatsoever. Myself, @CER_Grant & others are constantly researching & assessing the new info we have. Often, that info conflicts
We don't have crystal balls; but we do produce well-informed objective analysis - even if that analysis often questions consensus & is uncomfortable for folks as it challenges their normative views/priors
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Mujtaba Rahman
@Mij_Europe
.@DominicRaab interview on @AndrewMarr9 - where he argues EU negotiators need to match @JunckerEU warm words - again fundamentally misunderstands EU position. UK's plan for behind the border customs checks on N-S trade runs up against two sets of important EU interests 1/3
1) Obvious Irish question; 2) For this plan/border to work, it will rely heavily on trusted trader schemes, exemptions for SME's etc. This is the "hole in SM" argument but is primarily a revenue issue - as these taxes pay into EU budget (& Agri taxes are v high for example) 2/3
Both issues are central to EU Community interest so 27 have little reason to compromise. No gap between @JunckerEU & his negotiators. Juncker is wily political operator. His warm words designed to make it harder for UK to walk away, and to be clear where blame lies if it does END
Read 3 tweets
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Mujtaba Rahman
@Mij_Europe
SC hearing on whether @BorisJohnson acted lawfully in suspending Parliament for 5 weeks has attracted much media attention. But if 11 judges rule against him, what are political implications? Short thread after chats with both sides 1/
Would be another embarrassing setback for PM, who would have been deemed to misled Queen. BJ might feel compelled to recall MPs. Most significantly, it would close off option Govt was contemplating of suspending Parly again in run-up to 31 Oct to prevent it blocking no-deal 2/
Negative ruling might also have some upside for Johnson. He could expand his “Parliament vs people” pitch at election to “establishment vs people” embracing judiciary as well. Labour sources privately worried about appeal of such a Tory campaign 3/
Read 11 tweets
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Mujtaba Rahman
@Mij_Europe
Is a #Brexit deal possible? We're at 20%. That % has received a lot of flack on Twitter (too high!) but I think it's right - basically a deal is possible, but unlikely. Short thread 1/
First what's likely shape of deal? Again important to recognise that @10DowningStreet no longer committed to "frictionless trade" between NI & ROI per @DavidGHFrost meets in Bxl. Instead, only seeking to "facilitate" trade. There'll be a border. Govt seeking to soften it. How? 2/
All Ireland SPS zone, electricity market & common travel area are most commonly cited features. What else? This - the scope - is what's currently being discussed. Obvious tricky issues include customs, VAT, manufactured goods & governance (Stormont & ECJ) 3/
Read 17 tweets

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Janis Emmanouilidis
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Although process still ongoing, here some (preliminary) thoughts/ideas reflecting lessons from current (s)election of #EU leadership. Thread acknowledges that there is no 'perfect process' & assumes that Lisbon Treaty won't be (fundamentally) reformed in foreseeable future:
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For the UK, the #European Elections are no replacement for a second referendum. Nor are they just a symbolic act. All the more reason to vote. Thread (I am not going to tell you how to vote. Just to vote.) 1
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James Holland
@James7Holland
THREAD..

..on the biggest and baddest lobbyists in EU town

..the huge influence they have on EU lawmaking

..and how many represent interests from outside the EU.

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"BusinessEurope?!?" you ask.

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The_War_Economy
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"EU parliament hosts Russian propaganda circus"

Andrew Rettman, EU Observer, April 28, 2016

euobserver.com/foreign/133259
"Russian TV, blacklisted officials, and lobbyists in the European Parliament on Wednesday (27 April) hurled accusations at a deceased Russian lawyer and attacked EU institutions."
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David M. Herszenhorn
@herszenhorn
Amid reports that #UK PM @theresa_may hopes to renegotiate the "backstop" provision on the Northern Ireland border, let's recall that she already made clear what she wants in her letter to #EU leaders before disastrously losing the #Brexit Withdrawal Treaty ratification vote. 1/
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Steve Herman
@W7VOA
#UK Foreign Secretary @BorisJohnson has resigned, according to @10DowningStreet.
"His replacement will be announced shortly," @10DowningStreet spokesman says.
More on the @BorisJohnson resignation:
Read 15 tweets

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