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SC hearing on whether @BorisJohnson acted lawfully in suspending Parliament for 5 weeks has attracted much media attention. But if 11 judges rule against him, what are political implications? Short thread after chats with both sides 1/
Would be another embarrassing setback for PM, who would have been deemed to misled Queen. BJ might feel compelled to recall MPs. Most significantly, it would close off option Govt was contemplating of suspending Parly again in run-up to 31 Oct to prevent it blocking no-deal 2/
Negative ruling might also have some upside for Johnson. He could expand his “Parliament vs people” pitch at election to “establishment vs people” embracing judiciary as well. Labour sources privately worried about appeal of such a Tory campaign 3/
But SC decision is not seen by UK or EU officials as most important event for Brexit process/outcomes. Far more significant: can @BorisJohnson secure deal to replace Irish backstop by Oct Council? If he fails, will he obey law and request A50 extension? 4/
We remain sceptical on deal for reasons I’ve discussed previously—incl yesterday. But Govt insiders believe “stars can still align” pointing to talks with Angela Merkel, @EmmanuelMacron, @LeoVaradkar and @eucopresident at the UNGA in NY on Mon and Tues 5/
If deal isn’t reached, what happens then? Experts believe “Benn law” is legally watertight. Ministers admit privately that they and their officials are poring over it with a microscope in hope of finding a loophole 6/
Think @Borisjohnson has 4 options. 1) Defy law in knowledge this would provoke another—more significant—legal battle. This is what ministers expect. Odds of VONC by opposition goes up. Some MPs might also try to revoke Article 50 7/
2) BJ allows someone else to request A50 extension on Govt’s behalf—another Cabinet minister; Mark Sedwill. 3) Resign in expectation Queen would ask @jeremycorbyn to form Govt. 4) BJ engineers no-confidence vote in his own Govt 8/
Johnson’s hope would be that Corbyn would soon be ousted by a no-confidence vote, and would be punished for extension by Leave voters at ensuing election. BUT options 3 & 4 very risky for @BorisJohnson 9/
If Corbyn became PM, even on a temporary basis, he might become less keen on early election. He might even push through a ref with SNP support. If he acted responsibly while PM, Tory attacks on Corbyn as Marxist bogeyman at future election are also more likely to fall flat 10/
For these reasons, we believe the most likely outcome is that @BorisJohnson delays seeking an extension and becomes embroiled in another legal battle—scenario 1, with all unpredictable political consequences that follow ENDS
