Thread by @MattGlassman312

Six quick thoughts about the coming House impeachment.

1. No one really knows what is going to happen. We're missing facts, we're missing public/elite responses to those facts, there'll be future actions, and responses to those actions, strategy decisions in House, WH, etc.

2. The House Dems are, this week, well-situated. They don't have to adjudicate underlying substance of the Ukraine scandal, because they can assert the *withholding* of the complaint is itself illegal and impeachment-worthy. Unites them around oversight power rather than merits.

This simultaneously boxes in WH, congressional GOP, and surrogates, who have to deny substance is problematic but also refuse to turn over / call for release of the complaint. "Waiting for the facts" essentially calls out the WH/POTUS to release the complaint.

3. The people to watch are: swing House Dems, swing House GOP, and GOP Senators. They are the ones who will ultimately decide whether this becomes a fancy version of a House censure, the removal of the POTUS, or something in between. Ditto for how the politics shakes out.

Again, who knows (see #1), but my hunch is an impeachment with < 230 Dems (so 5+ against) and 0 GOP will look pretty weak. A party-line impeachment, 236 (with Amash) to 199, will basically be a wash or marginally bad for Dems, and 240+ (including 5 GOP) is dangerous for POTUS.

Everyone likes to say all the GOP are against this and/or the Dems will unite, but you can see lots of people breaking with their party on both sides, depending on how things play out. Here are the 40 most centrist DW-NOM members; easy to imagine simlutanous R yes and D no's.

And that's not even counting the retiring GOP members. Hurd, Roby, Mitchell, Brooks, Olson, Conoway, Marchant, Woodall. Not hard to imagine some pro-impeachment votse coming from there.

The GOP Senators are another whole question. Many will prefer to play a private game until absolutely necessary. But while everyone on the left is yelling about how they refuse to call out Trump, in my mind the bigger story this week is how silent they are in defending him.

4. There's a big difference between position-taking on impeachment and actively working for it. I wrote about this over the summer in regard to the House, but it applies to the Senate as well.

newsletter.mattglassman.com/issues/matt-s-…

My gut feeling is that Romney will ultimately vote to convict Trump---that is, if and when there's a Senate trial, Mitt will vote for removal. That is, he will take a position.

But that's different than working to remove POTUS.

For instance, I don't think Mitt will try to put together a gang of 4 Republican Senators who can leverage the balance of power in the Senate---perhaps by refusing to confirm judges--to force other Senators into considering removal.

So while I think, right now based on current info, that you might see some GOP Senate votes for removal (Mitt, maybe Alexander, or Murkowski), I don't see any reason to believe you'll see a small gang try to leverage power for removal. (Again, all in the context of #1, who knows)

5. Be ready for cascades of opinion, either way. @leedrutman has a nice piece on this. Political opinion tends to move in waves in a legislature and the public sphere. Things happen very fast, for very logical reasons: there's safety in numbers.

vox.com/polyarchy/2017…

@leedrutman When opinion moves---like today with moderate Dems coming out for impeachment---it tends to happen with coordinated action (the 7 NatSec moderate Dems), or in tidal waves (like all the Dems who followed). Same could happen with House GOP or Senate GOP, either direction.

@leedrutman This can be caused by new information, by a handful of people going out on a limb, or by coordinated consensus. Again, either direction. If the Senate GOP decides to solidify and publicly back Trump forcefully, it will likely be a cascade. Same with the opposite.

@leedrutman This is sort of the Nixon story, @jbview is very good on this. Support for Nixon among GOP elites was pretty strong, right up until the point when it was not.

@leedrutman @jbview 6. Things that seem spontaneous in legislative politics are often planned. Take, for instance, the op-ed from the seven NatSec freshmen Democrats. Entirely plausible---and perhaps likely---that was coordinated by the leadership, as a rollout mechanism for this impeachment push.

@leedrutman @jbview In any case, it certainly didn't blindside the leadership, I think there's essentially zero chance those members just did this on their own without a heads-up and without some approval. So be careful trying to sort out individual actions, leadership actions, and party actions.

5. Be ready for cascades of opinion, either way.
@leedrutman has a nice piece on this. Political opinion tends to move in waves in a legislature and the public sphere. Things happen very fast, for very logical reasons: there's safety in numbers.

vox.com/polyarchy/2017…

When opinion moves---like today with moderate Dems coming out for impeachment---it tends to happen with coordinated action (the 7 NatSec moderate Dems), or in tidal waves (like all the Dems who followed). Same could happen with House GOP or Senate GOP, either direction.

This can be caused by new information, by a handful of people going out on a limb, or by coordinated consensus. Again, either direction. If the Senate GOP decides to solidify and publicly back Trump forcefully, it will likely be a cascade. Same with the opposite.

This is sort of the Nixon story, @jbview is very good on this. Support for Nixon among GOP elites was pretty strong, right up until the point when it was not.

6. Things that seem spontaneous in legislative politics are often planned. Take, for instance, the op-ed from the seven NatSec freshmen Democrats. Entirely plausible---and perhaps likely---that was coordinated by the leadership, as a rollout mechanism for this impeachment push.

In any case, it certainly didn't blindside the leadership, I think there's essentially zero chance those members just did this on their own without a heads-up and without some approval. So be careful trying to sort out individual actions, leadership actions, and party actions.