,
11 tweets,
2 min read
Read on Twitter
One key point is somewhat understated in this piece: the congressional GOPers don't trust Trump to follow-through with things. Last thing they want is to be cajoled into supporting a background-check bill by POTUS, only to be left to dry when Trump reverses under NRA pressure.
They've been burned before---notably when he called the House Obamacare repeal "mean"---and this is the kind of thing members just detest. And it's the soft stuff of presidential weakness.
Because members wary of being burned by POTUS are going to do all sorts of things that make it less likely POTUS will try for a background check bill, and more likely that he will reverse course.
On the margins, members will be less likely to get out in front of it, less eager to be seen publicly jumping on to his plan, and less willing to dive in until they know he's serious.
All of those things, of course, just embolden the NRA and its allies to ramp up their attacks, which in turn make Trump more likely to cave. And then it becomes a semi-self-fulfilling prophecy.
It has a Neustadt-flair to it. He was more concerned with POTUS *not* being able to deliver being a source of weakness; here, it's the unknown about his *willingness* to deliver that triggers the other actors to be wary/uncooperative.
And, of course, that sort of reputation is just deadly. No one wants to stick their neck out for nothing. And if they worry you can't/won't deliver, they will clam up really quickly.
So it's not just *whether* Trump comes out for a background-check bill, it's how well he can credibly commit that he's not going to change his mind 48 hours later.
And you could easily end up in self-fulfilling situation, where Trump comes out tepidly for background check bill, GOP members tepidly support him on it but don't go all-out to help, and that makes it weaker, which in turn emboldens opponents, which crumbles Trump support. QED
So much of this goes to the heart of an important political reality: there's a huge difference between taking a position supporting something and working to make it happen.
And here’s a link to my summary tweetstorm and other writing I’ve done on presidential power and Trump.
