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, 3 tweets, 1 min read
Depending on where you mark Uber's investments, including Didi, Airbnb on paper is now worth more than Uber, $35B vs $32B.

Realistically, need to haircut Didi given Uber/Lyft performance (should it be worth 30% more than Uber?). Cut by 1/3 then Airbnb and Uber both around $35B.
Actually, depending on how much cash Airbnb has, it might be both are $32B, think I remember them having $3B. Anyway, they are neck and neck.
I'm also intrigued by Doordash being on paper $12B and Lyft having an EV of $8.5B.

I know we're comparing apples and oranges in both cases, but just perspective.
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modest proposal
@modestproposal1
If you haven’t read Measuring the Moat by @mjmauboussin you should read Measuring the Moat csinvesting.org/wp-content/upl…
And: “You should not view the calculation of ROIC as an academic exercise. The goal is to understand the magnitude and sustainability of ROICs in excess of the cost of capital. Companies with large excess returns generally have some competitive advantage.” research-doc.credit-suisse.com/docView?langua…
And definitely this:
“Capital allocation is a senior management team’s most fundamental responsibility. The problem is that many CEOs don’t know how to allocate capital effectively. The objective of capital allocation is to build long-term value per share”
research-doc.credit-suisse.com/docView?langua…
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modest proposal
@modestproposal1
“Still, he’s making plans for the future and has also permitted his daughter, Michelle, to help a director produce a documentary on his life for a cable channel” 👏👏👏
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modest proposal
@modestproposal1
According to TheInformation, Airbnb spent about 30% of revenue on sales & marketing last year. It was up 58% in Q1 19. Would imply something like 33% of revenue this year. I remain intrigued by the narrative that they have a huge direct traffic advantage.
Here’s the link
Dramatically oversimplified but here's a comparison of Booking, Expedia, Airbnb. (Expedia includes Trivago and has COGS in other expenses so it's a mess). It appears Booking and Airbnb have ~ the same non sales & marketing expenses while Booking is 3x the revs. Is that right?
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Related threads

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Gavin Baker
@GavinSBaker
1) Thoughts post E3. Streaming is real, xCloud is the likely winner. Publishers are using Stadia, other potential new distributors and the threat of app store regulation to drive down platform take rates. “30% is over" - Prominent CEO. Console wars/cycles now semi-irrelevant.
2) The CFO of one of the two major consoles acknowledged take rate pressure and said that it “was heyday for the publishers.”

As an example – not a prediction - take rates declining from 30% to 20% would drive a 14% digital revenue increase at 100% incremental pretax margins.
3) And this would further incent publishers to drive higher revenue, higher margin digital distribution at the expense of physical distribution.
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It's Going Down
@IGD_News
Workers are set to strike May 8th against tech giants #Uber + #Lyft + are calling for 24 hour boycott of the app. Already, strikes + protests are being planned across the world. @salvo_paper reports on the reasons behind the revolt. #uberstrike #LyftStrike itsgoingdown.org/why-uber-and-l…
"Drivers faced real challenges this month. Uber cut compensation from .80 per mile to .60 per mile. Lyft eliminated their multipliers, which allow drivers to earn more than the base rate. James Hicks, “we are treading water so that we don’t drown.” drivers-united.org/strike
Check out this map and social media to find strike actions near you. drivers-united.org
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Garry()
@garrytan
This is a classic investor fallacy

Startups don’t ever die because they raised a full round at $20M valuation

They die because the product sucks or the market doesn’t care

Obviously
Our top YC investments were Coinbase and Instacart and they are worth more than $10B combined

Both seed investments were well north of $10M post.

Venture returns are power law. If you wonder at all if something is worth $X, you don’t have conviction and you should not invest.
Only invest when it is a HELL YEAH. Otherwise it is a no.

If you are “maybe, only if I get a good deal” you should probably walk. This is not that kind of business.
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Sam Kraemer
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We’ve made it to Cripple Creek. The preliminary hearing for State of Colorado vs. Patrick Frazee starts in a little under 90 minutes. I’ll tweet live updates from the courtroom here. #KelseyBerreth #PatrickFrazee #KrystalKenney @KOAA
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Per Bylund
@PerBylund
There's a whole lot of buzz about the #sharingeconomy. Many seem to think it is something new, with some calling for a 'new economics' to explain it while others deride the 'gig economy' as a higher level of exploitation, inequality, and poverty. Neither is a good analysis.
First things firs: the sharing economy was facilitated by advances in technology alongside consumer preferences changing from goods to services and thus from ownership to lease. These are not separate processes, but mutually constituting changes where each increases the other.
The advances in technology that brought about the sharing economy are those that allow for cheaper, faster, and more accurate communication, verification of factual claims, decentralized corroborated trust/reputation etc. They overall lower transaction costs by making information
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