First read through Johnson's proposals for a "New Protocol on Ireland / Northern Ireland". Here is a short thread with some initial reactions / thoughts...
1) The publicly available documents are not a legal text: short letter+slightly more detailed memo. Though even still, Johnson only talks about "broad landing zone" & draft legal text clearly relies on issues being decided during transitional period rather than settled in advance
2) Problem of regulatory barriers to be solved by NI staying aligned with relevant/changing SM rules. But EU still expected to change its market surveillance systems to suit UK - details TBC. And UK wants to ditch "level playing field" guarantees that apply to everyone else in SM
3) Most important: NI institutions need to consent to regulatory alignment at outset and on regular basis thereafter. Setting aside non-functioning of NI institutions: basically gives DUP veto over future of Irish border (yuk!) & creates state of constant uncertainty for everyone
4) Worth noting: HMG maintains promise that, even though regulatory checks will apply GB to NI, no checks will apply NI to GB. So much for "taking back control of borders". And confirms significant distortion within "UK internal market" for Scotland, Wales and English regions...
5) As for customs barriers: UK (including NI) will form separate customs territory from EU (including IRL). Yet HMG claims this is "entirely compatible" with an open border. The rest of the world would like to know how the UK has discovered this Holy Grail of International Trade!
6) Alas, the answer is more mundane: HMG repeats sort of fantasy "border free" trade model we've been listening to from Brexiters for years, based on electronic monitoring, physical inspections along supply chain, trusted trader schemes, special exemptions for small traders etc.
7) Many such tools already exist & we know their flaws, eg it's non-trusted traders who are real problem. Other ideas rely on aspirational technology. Plus UK is again asking EU to change its rules and processes. And all that is besides massive paperwork for NI/IRL businesses.
8) In any case: UK wants separate customs territories but "open border" and yet no "level playing field" guarantees - thereby aggravating risks of abuse / evasion. And once again: key details about how proposals might work = just left to be negotiated during transitional period.
9) Overall, is this convincing? No: it's a reheated version of fantasy / nonchalant "cake and eat it" approach to NI/IRL that Brexiters have been peddling for years. But these proposals are also interesting for what they reveal about Johnson & Co plan for future EU-UK relations:
10) Johnson & Co want a distant future relationship between EU and UK that leaves latter free to do as it pleases with regulation & trade = to dismantle European model of well-regulated social market economy. Clear as day: Irish border = just an inconvenience to that broader goal
Yes indeed: this morning's "working hypothesis" now confirmed as reality, i.e. Johnson & Co are actively seeking to provoke "no deal" outcome. His letter talks about "a failure of statecraft". More accurate? Hijacking state power so as deliberately to inflict damage on others.
