Sometimes you have to make decisions on imperfect information. For example, Jeopardy Champion and intel analyst Mark Lowenthal recalls that the Iraq estimate was honest. They believed it.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Lowe…
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Lowe…
The 2002 estimate claiming that Iraq possessed weapons of mass destruction had little influence on anyone's decision about going to war. Only 6 senators actually read the NIE ...
but 77 voted to authorize the use of force. As analytically flawed as that estimate might have been, the one intelligence "sin" the council did not commit was "politicization"
You don't know if you're right or wrong until history returns the test paper. Recognizing Israel, toppling Saddam, supporting the Kurd -- you make your best guess and open the envelope of destiny. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose.
Why, then, lead on. O, that a man might know
The end of this day's business ere it come!
But it sufficeth that the day will end,
And then the end is known. Come, ho! away!
The end of this day's business ere it come!
But it sufficeth that the day will end,
And then the end is known. Come, ho! away!
