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, 3 tweets, 1 min read
OK, here's a classic 538 "well, actually" story.

#Actually, Biden's numbers haven't declined at all since the Ukraine story broke, and while Warren has made big recent gains, few of them have come from Biden: fivethirtyeight.com/features/eliza…
In certain respects the media would seem to be making the same mistake it made with Trump in the GOP primaries in 2016, consistantly predicting his demise despite steady poll numbers, perhaps because his support comes mostly from voters that the media largely ignores.
However, Biden faces a problem that Trump never did: an opponent as strong as Warren, who has already broken through in a way that none of Trump's GOP rivals in 2016 ever really did.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Looks like the NBA has new heights and weights up, supposedly using more accurate measurements. The average player got half an inch shorter and 3 points lighter, as compared with how they were listed last season. on.nba.com/2p5cJYTx
Here are the guys who shrunk by 2 inches vs. how they were listed last season. (Nobody yet seems to have shrunk by *more* than 2 inches.) Notables: Beal, Ayton, Mitchell, Ingram, Klay.
Here are the guys who got taller, including LeBron and Durant. Ibaka grew 2 inches. Caveat to all of this: this data just went up today and sometimes newly-posted data has funky things going on with it!
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Hiring news! Jasmine Mithani (@jazzmyth) has joined @fivethirtyeight as a visual journalist on our interactives team. She'll be working from Chicago, where she recently worked as a developer at @datamadeco (and where she'll continue to volunteer with @SouthSideWeekly).
Also! Ryan Best (@ryanabest) has joined 538 as a visual journalist on our interactives team. He recently completed an internship with @BBGVisualData and is completing an MS in Data Visualization at Parsons. He'll be based in New York.
For a list of open 538 positions, see here. We're currently looking for a copy chief, a tech+politics reporter, and a race+politics reporter. fivethirtyeight.com/jobs/
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
We just posted the first half of a very long (but fun to read?!?) chat about our NBA projections: 53eig.ht/2W0WLuG
What's kind of tricky about statistical preseason projections is that they're not really considering how rosters can change. For instance, our forecasts are quite bullish on OKC relative to Vegas. But they could also trade half their roster by midseason; we don't adjust for that.
Perhaps more importantly: for the teams our model considers to be in the top tier (HOU, LAC, MIL, PHI) a single high-quality acquisition could make them the title frontrunner. Maybe even for the next tier down also (GSW, DEN, LAL, UTA) depending on how big it was.
Read 4 tweets

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Kyiv Post
@KyivPost
Kyiv Post. Friday, Oct. 18, 2019
Here's a sneak peek at what's inside the latest issue 👀
If you like what you see here, why not consider subscribing. It's free for the first month!

Sign up here 👉 bit.ly/2Mu282x
Read 4 tweets
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Dannielle Blumenthal PhD
@DrDannielle
So are you sick of this fake Ukraine whistleblower story yet?

Don't worry!

There's more!
This person made a whole timeline. You can view it in Google Sheets format here. (I converted it and it's rough. docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…)
Posting the link again. It should be working.
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Read 132 tweets
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Victoria Brownworth 🏳️‍🌈
@VABVOX
THREAD 📌📌📌
What a total reframing of what actually happened to try to damage @KamalaHarris.
#Biden raised the issue of segregation.
#Booker---WHO IS BLACK---asked for an apology.
Biden doubled down and claimed Booker should apologize to him.
1/
 usatoday.com/story/news/pol…
This went on over a week before the debate as #Biden's history was revealed by journalists like me.
In the debates Biden lost badly to #Harris when he couldn't address his own record.
Biden's numbers plummeted, Harris's rose.
Then Biden went on CNN to attack Harris.
2/
Chris Cuomo gave #Biden TWO WHOLE SHOWS to attack #Harris with no pushback. Biden claimed he was "blindsided" by Harris, who commented on the issue Biden raised 10days earlier.
Biden revealed all his terrible policy ideas he never talks about & also attacked progressive WOC.
3/
Read 10 tweets
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Victoria Brownworth #PrideMonth
@VABVOX
#Biden has always been a disastrous candidate for women and thus far is performing badly as ever.
Biden's rollout in majority black Philly was small, majority suburban and male.
Biden has zero policy, but much baggage.
Biden is NOT our future.
The future is female.
I know no one who is pro-Biden.
Not my MIL who rolls her eyes over Biden but likes Warren nor a single other family member, friend, colleague or neighbor, whether boomer, gen x or millennial.
Polling has been limited and 67% say they are still looking while Biden's numbers drop.
This long, well-researched piece on Biden by @rtraister is the story of Biden & women. It clarifies why he's not the choice for an electorate that has moved left & younger. The excitement is for the women & younger men. Debates will shift the narrative.
thecut.com/2019/03/joe-bi…
Read 3 tweets
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Victoria Brownworth #EqualityActNow
@VABVOX
Calling Pennsylvania "#Biden's home state" as an excuse for why his base of operations isn't Delaware, where he was senator for THREE DECADES, ignores that he's trying to deflect from what Delaware stands for and what he did there when #Warren is going to hammer him on it.
#Biden never lived in #Philadelphia, ever.
He was born in Scranton, a white town upstate that is diametrically oppositional from Philadelphia which is majority black and the poorest big city in America.
Biden moved to Delaware from Scranton, PA when he was TEN.
It's fine to decide to distance yourself from the place--DELAWARE, not PA-- you lived for SIXTY SIX YEARS & where you grew up, got married, raised your kids & grandkids. But don't pretend it's because you are FROM Philadelphia when you just want our votes & your state is tiny.
Read 11 tweets

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