We just posted the first half of a very long (but fun to read?!?) chat about our NBA projections: 53eig.ht/2W0WLuG
What's kind of tricky about statistical preseason projections is that they're not really considering how rosters can change. For instance, our forecasts are quite bullish on OKC relative to Vegas. But they could also trade half their roster by midseason; we don't adjust for that.
Perhaps more importantly: for the teams our model considers to be in the top tier (HOU, LAC, MIL, PHI) a single high-quality acquisition could make them the title frontrunner. Maybe even for the next tier down also (GSW, DEN, LAL, UTA) depending on how big it was.
I think that makes Denver, which has a lot of movable parts, pretty interesting. What would then Nuggets look like with, say, Bradley Beal on the roster?
And among the top tier, the Clippers have somewhat more ability to improve their roster than the Rockets, for instance.
And among the top tier, the Clippers have somewhat more ability to improve their roster than the Rockets, for instance.
