Premature musings on Poland's future [THREAD]: Could PiS's high-water mark have passed? A very strange question when they have just won the largest proportion of the vote of any party since 1989. But their second term is already shaping as a greater challenge than their first.
(1) Parliament will be a trickier proposition. In 2015, they were fortunate to win a majority with only 38% of the vote. This time, even with 43%, they have the very same slim majority, with more other parties in the parliament to contest their policies from different directions.
(2) Losing control of the Senate (for now). The opposition will be able to hold up (not block) legislation. This will stop PiS from bypassing consultation, opening them to more scrutiny and making them look less effective. The perception of efficacy is a key part of their success
(3a) Losing momentum. The party seems thrown by their slightly-worse-than-expected electoral result. Ambitions of a greater majority and popular mandate have been stymied. With more obstacles to face, it will take discipline to recapture the tremendous energy of their first term.
(3b) They may become victims of their own success. After so much activity in the first term, there is less for them to do in the second term. There are not many more social promises to be made (or that the budget will sustain). And they may struggle to keep their latest promises.
(4) Kaczyński. The leader looked tired and bitter as he celebrated victory on election night. He may reinvigorate himself, but he is not getting younger and he may step down sooner rather than later. Without him, the spectre of simmering conflicts in the ruling camp will return
(5) Economic downturn. If global turbulence hits while PiS is grappling with the challenges described above, then this term may well be their last. Their success has been closely tied to favourable economic conditions. If voters start to lose their jobs, PiS will have a problem.
(6) Presidential elections in 2020: a great unknown. President Duda currently has a very strong position (not unusual for presidential incumbents), but a combined opposition candidate would have a chance. A hostile president with a veto would completely change the game for PiS.
(7) A key caveat: much will depend on the opposition. The Left probably lacks the underlying support potential to challenge seriously. If the liberal KO fails to reinvent itself after a lacklustre last 4 years, then PiS may win again by default, perhaps only losing its majority.
(8a) Final questions: if PiS faces challenges, will they take anti-democratic action to bolster their position? Will they bring to heel the private media, as they have often hinted? Will they continue their attacks on the judiciary? How will their relations with the EU develop?
(8b) PiS may well go after the media and further undermine judicial independence. If so, the attacks will probably come through legislation early in the new term. So far, PiS has partly bent to outside pressure (ECJ). No guarantee this will continue if things get existential.
Conclusion: PiS is now the most successful party in post-1989 history. But the new term will bring challenges that might mean their best days are over. They will govern, but with more constraints. They will have to work hard to avoid their predecessors’ fate in the second term.
