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The Warriors are down to a 25% chance of making the playoffs now that we know the full extent of Steph Curry's injury. And that's probably a bit generous... projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-nba-predi…
...so far, we've been making only very conservative, provisional adjustments based on how teams have been playing so far this season. In about ~1 week, we'll introduce a full-fledged update based on 2019-20 RAPTOR ratings to date, which should shake things up a bit.
Teams on track to get a boost include UTA, ATL, BOS, PHI, LAC and TOR. What about PHX, MIN and DAL? They've played well but RAPTOR was quite bullish on them to begin with so they won't get much *further* increase.

Teams whose prospects may decline include GSW, DEN, SAC and IND.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
One thing is that this latest Buttigieg surge is that he initially gained only ~1 point or so after last month's debate, but the media declared it was a huge surge ... and now he's seemingly having a more significant surge, at least in the early states.
Some evidence of this: Buttigieg's net favorability numbers, though they were already quite good, didn't actually improve in this poll from Monmonth's previous one. He's just been more salient in the conversation so more voters have him as their first choice.
p.s. This is a bit of the risk candidates face in attacking Buttigieg. They potentially elevate his profile and keep him in the news. You don't face that problem as much when attacking Biden, Sanders or Warren since they're already household names.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Deval Patrick has more upside than Bloomberg, but he's far from a household name, wouldn't initially be able to participate in debates, and isn't obviously more compelling to D voters than a number of other well-qualified alternatives who are polling at 2-3%.
Plus, candidates who enter late have a terrible track record and D voters are quite happy with their choices. So for a new entrant, we're at a point of going VERY big (say, Oprah! big) or going home.
I do think next week's debate is a big opportunity for Booker, Harris and Klobuchar, who as I've said a number of times are more plausible nominees than a lot of the names being thrown out there.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
What's tricky is when we think of "party elites" or "the establishment", we usually think of multiple groups of people that behave similarly to one another: elected officials, donors, influential media figures, etc. But in the D primary, those groups seem to differ.
Elected officials, based on endorsements, are lukewarm on the field, but are OK with Biden as well as any of the senators (Harris, Booker, Klob).

Influential media figures tend to be pretty pro-Warren.

Rich donors seem to hate everyone currently running except maybe Buttigieg.
Meanwhile, Democratic *voters* think the current field is pretty great! Especially the top 4 (Biden, Warren, Bernie, Buttigieg) but some of the lower-tier candidates have good favorability ratings also.

So it's all pretty confusing.
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IndoPacific_SCS_Info
@IndoPac_Info
XI THE POOH SLAM DUNKS THE #NBA

Communist China is run by a tyrannical oligarchy headed by the thin-skinned President Xi. He banned ‘Winnie the Pooh’ after dissidents said he resembled the cartoon bear. So the meme bear is now routinely applied to him grrrgraphics.com/nba-caves-to-c…
China likes basketball & the NBA plays exhibition games there. Players aren’t allowed to have free speech on topics such as Hong Kong. Chicoms are authoritarian control freaks. They want their social credit score system in America as well and Silicon Valley seems happy to oblige.
The NBA coaches could have set an example for freedom, but 1.4 billion fans in China are hard to ignore. It’s a big market there. The NBA will not criticize Xi and his brutality. It boils down to money. They make billions in sales to China & a lot of money through advertising.
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𝗧𝗵𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗱 | 𝗧𝗵𝗲🍑𝗜𝗺𝗽𝗲𝗮𝗰𝗵𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗼𝗳 𝗗𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹𝗱 𝗝. 𝗧𝗿𝘂𝗺𝗽
Nancy Pelosi Announces Formal Impeachment Inquiry of Trump

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Kristine Cummins
@KristineCummins
Here are some reasons why many Democrats take issue with Justice Democrats

• Divisive Provocateurs
• GOP & RU Weaponizes JDs
• Alt-Right Meets Alt-Left
• Voted With Republicans
• Unseat Dems, Not GOP
• Suspect Financial Dealings
• Unhappy Constituents

1/112 Here we go...
First off, gratitude for all the people — whose tweets are included in this thread — who have solid points & pertinent contributions about Justice Dems(JDs). I couldn’t have said it better myself. I hope this helps those who're still wondering why Dems are frustrated with JDs. 2/
Who're they?
"Justice Dems is an American progressive political action cmte founded in '17 by Kyle Kulinski of Secular Talk, Cenk Uygur of The Young Turks & former leadership from '16 Bernie Sanders presidential campaign. The two are no longer affiliated with group." Wiki /3
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Teri Kanefield
@Teri_Kanefield
(Thread) Trump’s Strategy is not Stupid

Spoiler: It’s cynical. But not stupid.

OK, it looks stupid: Trump is doubling down on the very issues that resulted in Democrats winning the House in 2018 & every Midwest race.⤵️
1/ Trump’s strategy until now has been to keep his base excited and his critics outraged.
(See👇 )

I'll argue here that if he tries to move to the center—if he tries to moderate his views and tamp down the hateful rhetoric—he’ll lose more than he’ll gain.
2/ Trump’s disapproval has been over 50% for the past two years. See: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval…

People who've spent two years shocked and outraged won't suddenly become Trump supporters if he suddenly stops insulting people and stops fascist-style chants.
Read 23 tweets
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Julian Mozo
@JulianMozo
Es impresionante lo que hizo Steph Curry.
No me refiero a un tiro o a una noche increíble, como nos tiene acostumbrados.
La estrella de GSW tiene una muy interesante "adicción" a los pochoclos y armó un ránking de los que venden en los 30 estadios #NBA
Conozcan la historia 👇
La rutina previa a cada juego incluye más que sus famosas sesiones de manejo de balón y tiros.
Su preferida, no x menos conocida, es la de comer pochoclos.
Sobre todo de visitante. "Me bajo del colectivo, llego al vestuario, dejo mis cosas y agarro la bolsa que me dejan", admite.
#Curry admite que no es una rutina muy saludable, pero ha sucumbido a los placeres del clásico #popcorn estadounidense.
Al punto de comerlo no sólo antes del juego. "Es parte de mi experiencia. Y si me va bien, como en el entretiempo y luego del partido", aclara sin sonrojarse.
Read 11 tweets

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