Thinking aloud: I believe CDNs will NOT face another federal election for close to 3 years, notwithstanding we now have a minority gov’t. Here are the facts that have led me to this conclusion...1/
2/. This Liberal Minority gov’t at 156 seats is strong enough that PM Trudeau needs only to ensure support from 1 opposition party to pass legislation. None of the 3 main opp parties will want to force another election for a couple of yrs
3/ CPC’s constitution calls for a May 2020 convention with automatic confidence vote in Leader. If Scheer loses vote, then CPC must launch a new leadership race & so approx 9-12 months to pick new Leader then will want a further 12months...
4/ a new CPC Leader if an elected MP will want at least 6-9 months to get used to ‘leading’ & preparing for general election. If not an MP, then will wish to win a by-election, sit in HoC for at least 6months before wanting a general election;
5/ Now for the NDP. This party is totally broke and still apparently owes $3+millions to Parliament (another story to be retold in separate tweet). Soooo, it has to rebuild its financial coffers before it could wage another general election. I believe it needs a min of 2-3 yrs...
6/ Now let’s look at the Bloc QC. Totally revived from the ashes of the 2011/2015 elections, it more than tripled its seats (from 10 to 32 MPs). It’s problem is twofold, financial & organizational. The BQ won not because it had a great ground game & organization....
7/ BQ won because Premier Legault handed them the ballot question (Law 21) for QC voters & the NDP’s answer to question really didn’t interest QC voters. So BQ despite real win needs a couple of years to strengthen its finances & ground organization.
8/. Now PM Trudeau can cherrypick which policy/law to put forward. If for instance something about TransMountain Pipeline, CPC will definitely vote in favour; measures to strengthen climate change plan, NDP/GP & probably BQ vote in favour.
9/. So in conclusion, if PM Trudeau governs intelligently, he can virtually be assured about 3 yrs before one or more opposition party tries to defeat gov’t on an confidence issue. And that’s my 2 cents which may be worth that, or less, or more. Up to you to decide.
