Short THREAD on #Russia - #Turkey divergences over #Idlib as seen from #Moscow: 1. In early August I described rationale behind RU positon & that "certain level of understanding reached w/ TUR that there should be no [large-scale] offensive on Idlib [then]"almon.co/338t
2.I recently reached out to the same senior RUS diplomat who reiterated #Moscow's bottom-line desire to settle the issue peacefully except for terrorists organization who he argued #Turkey too agreed to fight as part of AStana agreements.Yesterday,RU #Syria envoy Lavrentyev..
3. .alluded to #Russia's growing displease w/ #Ankara's inability to deliver upon its committments in the area that, as Lavrentyev said"is kind of their zone of responsibility."Instead,#Erdogan writing op-eds,trying to enlist support from #West/ern partners over #Idlib which is..
..the idea for the summit was to get a deal where all the 3 can secure their bottom-line interests.They didn't fully achieve it since there will be another round of trilateral talks (some time in the future in #Russia) and the parties hope to settle #Idlib issue in #Tehran but..
..(a) #Turkey maintained credibility of the oppoaition (by that good cop-bad cop thing #Erdogan & #Putun played), (b) #Russia got his promise to deal w/ those attacking #Hmeymim (c) #Ankara received time to settle the major task of assorting militants (d)..
"..from my contacts w/ al Jubeir, other colleagues from the region it appears they all grew stronger in understanding that the reality is government of #Syria providing sovereignty & legitimate security interests of its country."
3/3 #Lavrov concludes: "#Russia always urged unity in #Arab family. Today the family has many problems. But we argue for it to live the way they want in their region. and resist attempts to have their own interests manipulated for the sake of someone else's geopolitical goals."
#Russia's UN envoy Nebenzya starts speaking at UNSC meeting on #Syria, alleged #ChemicalAttacks in #Douma, promises "he'd have to say a lot and the delegates'd have to listen"
1."#UK, #France follow #US in destructive policies in SYR, use blackmail, threaten RUS,
2.Even during #ColdWar Western diplomats didn't afford such tone vis-a-vis #Russia, "You understand what you did [in #MIddleEast]?No, you don't!Will you ever stop your geopolitical experiments?Do you understand what dangerous line you are driving the world to?
3.What's next for us?The most dangerous line of the confrontation is in #Syria.
In #EasternGhouta radicals have been terorrizing population for many years. Now people are being freed..But external sponsors prevent this progress.Terrorists wanted to continue blackmailing civilians
The first busses carrying hundreds of "Jaish al-Islam" and members of their families are leaving NOW #Duma. The beginning of clearing #Damascus. #Syria.
626 "Jaish al-Islam" militants/families have left #Ghouta towards #Aleppo - #Jarablus . The evacuation is slow because the Syrian Army wants to make sure the 100s of millions (JAL requested to take away $900 m but the request was rejected) r not taken away
Jaish al-Islam is expected to join the fight against #AQ & other Jihadists under #Turkey flag in the city and rural #Idlib where #Ankara is planning to eliminate those who don't obey its agenda. #Russia threatened #Idlib if #AQ remain in it, strong.
With the continuous flow of hundreds of well trained and armed Syrian popular forces, the Turkish #OliveBranchOperation is expected to be halted in the coming week: #Damascus clear confrontational attitude towards #Ankara seems obvious +
#Turkey knows that #Damascus is not acting alone and that #Russia is not far from seeing the Central government regain control of the Kurdish #Afrin enclave when #Kurds accepted all the Syrian gov conditions +
In the coming weeks, #Russia and #Ankara will have to find a way out to save #Turkey's face and present a scenario where everybody is a winner, including the #Kurds who have managed to save the destruction of the enclave.+
#Russia is discussing/finalising with #Turkey the cease-fire in #Afrin to allow 4000 #SAA men to take control of the entire city, surrounding villages, establish 52 positions in the enclave and deploy forces on the borders with #Turkey.
Thos who believe the deployment of the Syrian army will only be on the 160 km along the borders with #Turkey are mistaken because that was the initial request of the Afrin administration from day one, rejected by the government of #Damascus.
No, as #Astana agreement now in place and regime respecting it : when railway was under control, regime stopped all operations west : #Turkey, #Russia and #Iran already decided about all : regime has no words to say.
This is when you're too weak in your own land to decide. Regime opened the gate for this in september 2015 when, about to face more defeats, decided to give its soverignity to #Russia and #Iran. Note the same happened for rebels in 2016 when they decided to follow #Turkey.
#Syria'ns, from regime side or rebellion side, have no more words about what #Syria to become and what to happen : they're applying what the Troïka (#Moscow, #Tehran and #Ankara) is deciding. Those who don't understand that won't understand events ongoing and coming...