Peter Doyle (@retepelyod) is here! He starts by explaining that while the @IMFNews does get a lot of small things right, they get very big things wrong. #igdcseminar 
Doyle starts by showing a video by the IMF and gets the audience to analyse the framing and discourse of how debt and borrowing is presented (packed room, by the way). #igdcseminar
Jamaica is the first economy Doyle points to, because it was on his holiday in Jamaica that he started to become aware of the problems with economic policies promoted by the IMF. He points to high debt & low growth, along with astonishing primary balance.
To understand what's going wrong in Jamaica, Doyle starts by comparing it to growth and macroeconomics variables of Uganda, Kenya, Ethiopia, Namibia, Botswana and Mauritius. Here are comparative GDP trends between 2008 and 2018.
Here are the same countries, but per capita growth. Trends still similar.
Questions to ask the IMF officials. While Jamaica has high crime (a reason for low growth according to the Fund), why not then channel funding towards security and social programs? If the reason is "bad weather" (another alleged reason), why not fund hurricane defense?
Now on to the Debt Sustainability Framework (DSF) of the IMF. Doyle argues that it is very difficult for the Fund to actually turn on the red light, even if countries are highly indebted and arguably need a debt reduction.
An important part of the DSF is projecting growth. Here Doyle shows us IMF's projected growth of Greece vs. actual growth (look at that difference!).
Doyle argues that pre-emptive analysis and policy is key here. He even has a T-shirt with that message!
Who else is contributing to the driving up of primary surpluses, which leads to output foregone? DFID, World Bank, CIDA... Doyle likens this to a "debtor's prison".
Doyle is now discussing how an alternative solvency mechanism could be developed, comparing it to what exists for banks.
