Thread by @EvanDunfee

THREAD: IOC Hypocrisy and moving the road events from Tokyo to Sapporo.
Now that the move is official, lets look at how we got here, ask if the IOC is putting other athletes in danger, and what it all means for #Tokyo2020

Let's start with the women's marathon. There were certainly a lot of DNFs. 28 in total. But that only tells a small part of the story. High attrition rates in these races is common: The men's marathon in Osaka '07 had 50% drop out, and the Olympics went ahead in Beijing 1yr later

Let's talk about those 28. I was told that not a single woman used an ice bath before the race (no-one in the walks who ice bathed to my knowledge dropped out, in fact most performed very well). Re-watching the race at the start only a couple athletes had cold towels etc...

I'm willing to go on record & say the majority (not all) of athletes who dropped out (in all races) were ill prepared. The women were unfortunate guinea pigs. We learned a lot from watching them and that's why subsequent races the DNF rate was closer to what we normally see.

Here are just two examples of athletes who DNF'd admitting they did *nothing* to prepare for the heat.

https://twitter.com/EvanDunfee/status/1184554203970072576?s=20

https://twitter.com/EvanDunfee/status/1184667579488489472?s=20

Back to those 28 DNF's. 21 of them dropped out before or at halfway. 7 of them have raced again within next 3.5 weeks. This makes sense, the timing of this years worlds were right around other big races. So day isn't going well, drop out and live to fight another day, soon.

Beyond time of year as a consideration, time of day (midnight races) would have impacted DNFs. Trying to get you pre-race food & circadian rhythms right was really hard, some probably got it wrong. We are so lucky to have @TStellingwerff, most fed's don't have a Trent!

For the marathons it was also a small looped course of 7km (also new) It is a lot easier to drop out when you are at the finish line, your coaches are right there, medical etc...Vs. 10km isolated from finish you might slog it out.

Many unique factors where heat is but 1 of them

But the heat, was it dangerous? Like the media has tried to make us believe. Well, there are higher risks when you push yourself in harsh weather. But the LOC did an amazing job of mitigating the risk. Many drink tables, comprehensive medical teams etc... They were prepared.

And crucially there were 0 cases of heat stroke. That isn't an anecdote. That comes from the IAAF medical team. Heat stroke is a dangerous medical event, and someone collapsing from fatigue isn't heat stroke. Only 1 athlete was taken to hospital and luckily they were fine

Plus the very comprehensive heat study by @Aspetar. Waiting to see results, but I cheekily overheard that no participant from W mar had core temp >40c (i.e not dangerous, mine was 40.6c & I felt absolutely fine).

THIS should've formed main basis of any decision to move events!

To me this makes sense. Main factor was humidity. High humidity is going to primarily effect skin temp, which will make your brain THINK you're hotter than you are. Keep your skin temp down by constant cooling and you can keep pushing. Anecdotally, I saw many DNFs not doing this.

So heat played a role, but so did many other factors. And the heat was not dangerous, given the measures Doha took with ice baths, extra drink tables etc... (which unfortunately many athletes didn't take advantage of).
And crucially, no one is asking the scientists what they saw!

So how'd we get here? Well I'm of the opinion that the media had it out for @iaaforg. Some rightful Qs around how Doha was awarded champs to begin with (corruption) delved into using poor crowds & the women's marathon in the first couple days to frame this very negative story.

But were these "distressing scenes" really unique to Doha? What was unique (4 mara) was a small course allowing for WAY more coverage for video/photogs to capture the scenes/push narrative. Bigger courses typically vid on leaders +photogs at finish.

But what about other champs?

Osaka World Champs 2007
(temp start-finish +humidity start-finish)
M Mara- 28-33c +81-67% (50% DNF)
W Mara- 27-32c +74-55% (13% DNF)
50km Walk- 25-30 +80-56% (31% DNF)

...yet the IOC did nothing with Beijing in '08 where it is also hot and humid.

Beijing Olympics
M Mara- 24c 52% at start (20% DNF)
W Mara- no weather info (15% DNF)
50km Walk- no weather info (13% DNF)

Berlin World Champs '09
M Mara- 18-21c + 73-49% (23% DNF)
W Mara- 19-23c + 64-41% (14% DNF)
50km Walk- 20-22c + 68-73% (30% DNF)

Daegu World Champs '11
M Mara- 24-26c + 65-57% (23% DNF)
W Mara- 26c 72% (start and finish) (13% DNF)
50km Walk- 23-27c + 73-61% (19% DNF)

London Olympics (no weather info)
M Mara- 19% DNF
W Mara- 9% DNF
50km Walk- 7% DNF

Moscow World Champs '13
M Mara- 23c + 38% (26% DNF)
W Mara- 27-28c + 66-48% (33% DNF)
50km Walk- 17-22c + 94-69% (12% DNF)

Beijing World Champs '15 (only 1 temp given)
M Mara- 22c + 73% (37% DNF)
W Mara- 21c + 88% (20% DNF)
50km Walk- 22c + 78% (19% DNF)

Rio Olympics (weather data from Wiki 🙄- really hard to find Olympic weather data)
M Mara- 24ish C (10% DNF)
W Mara- 19ish C (15% DNF)
50km Walk- 23c + 89% (from my garmin) (28% DNF)

London World Champs '17 (just 1 weather point for marathons)
M Mara- 18c + 60% (28% DNF)
W Mara- 19c + 56% (14% DNF)
50km Walk-14-15c + 72-67% (15% DNF)

And finally Doha '19
M Mara- 29c + 51% (same at end) (25% DNF)
W Mara- 32c + 74% (same at end) (41% DNF)
50km Walk- 31-30 + 74-70% (33% DNF)

The biggest difference I see? A much more prepared medical staff, and it's dark.
Maybe these images are only distressing at night time?

But the IOC saw the narrative the media was pushing and got scared. They made a decision to try and protect their brand & avoid negative PR (they don’t care about athlete welfare). This decision was made without consultation with any stake holders (athletes, IAAF, Tokyo, Sapporo)

Basically the decision says that we, the athletes, are not safe in Tokyo. Yet they aren't moving any other event? Is our welfare more important than the welfare of other athletes? I sure hope not.

So lets look at some other sports.

After an athlete died during open water event in 2010 FINA introduced a 31c limit on water temps, above that race cancelled.
World Beach Games organized by ANOC (heavily tied to IOC) just allowed the open water swim to happen in Doha well above this limit
swimmingworldmagazine.com/news/fran-crip…

They are literally putting athletes lives in danger and no one outside the swimming world is paying attention. Some reports are water temps were 32.8c during the race.
Some athletes are risking their lives chasing these hot water races to prepare for Tokyo
swimmingworldmagazine.com/news/swimmers-…

Competing at the Tokyo Test Event earlier this year the 2012 marathon swim Gold medalist said,
"That was the warmest race I’ve ever done"

Water quality is also a problem. In 2017 e-coli levels were measured at 20x international standards.
japantimes.co.jp/sports/2019/08…

Those e-coli levels don't seem to have gotten better. In August at the Paratriathlon World Cup the swimming segment HAD TO BE CANCELLED due to e-coli levels well above safe.
reuters.com/article/us-par…

And speaking of Triathlon... In August at the Olympic Test Event the 10km run had to be cut to 5km due to the extreme heat.
insidethegames.biz/articles/10834…

And at the World Junior Rowing Champs, doubling as the Olympic Test Event in August several athletes were "treated for heat stroke symptoms"
Speculation that cost cutting has lead to inadequate preparation at the rowing venue.
japantimes.co.jp/sports/2019/08…

So does the IOC care more about the welfare of marathoners and walkers more than other athletes?
Or do they feel like the negative PR will be greatest in Athletics and they are acting to protect their image?

I know which my money is on.

There are either extreme risks and all the events should be moved.

Or we should focus on enforcing the rules in place (water temp/ quality) and educating athletes on how to best prepare for the heat to stay safe.

You CANNOT half ass have it both ways.

This is my final thought:
You're removing 5 free events from Tokyo. 5 opportunities for the people who are paying for these games but can't afford a ticket to take part, to be inspired by sport, to be inspired to chase their own dream and I don't know how to be O.K with that.