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Today on #CampaignCheck, @borisjohnson's big pledge on policing. 20,000 new officers. How much difference will it make? On the surface, it is indeed a massive increase in numbers, tho that raises a big question: is it actually possible to recruit & train 20k officers in 3yrs?
Yes, 20,000 more police officers would bring total numbers back to the pre-crisis peak. But divide police nos by the population (a better way of measuring police strength) and even after the recruitment blitz police strength will still be BELOW levels of 80s, 90s and 2000s
After @borisjohnson has recruited an extra 20,000 police officers, rather than being at the bottom of the European league table of police strength England & Wales will probably leapfrog Romania and be just below Poland. Still a long way below the European average. #campaigncheck
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Ed Conway
@EdConwaySky
There was a time when economic analysis was at the heart of how UK govt worked. Every decision was taken with an eye to econ impact: on jobs, wages, GDP. It was a credo which largely owed itself to the power and persuasion of the Treasury, the policy powerhouse in Whitehall. 1/
When Britain opted not to join the euro it was because of five economic tests. When interest rate decisions went to Bank of England it was because of economic evidence. When pub spending was cut it was alongside economic analysis from the Office for Budget Responsibility 2/
The advice wasn’t always right, the decisions taken weren’t always the best for the economy, but at the very least there was a paper trail which allowed the British public to understand what a given decision would mean for their livelihoods. 3/
Read 19 tweets
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Ed Conway
@EdConwaySky
The world is facing twin crises: a climate crisis which scientists say threatens us all & an economic crisis as productivity around the developed world slumps, provoking anger, frustration and a backlash against the establishment. It is tempting to get v depressed by all this 1/
Esp when u hear the suggested remedies. Some people (inc some hard Brexiteers & the hard left) think the economy should revert to how it was in the 1970s or 50s. Some climate strikers think we should return to the pre-industrial era (as long as they can keep their smartphones) 2/
For me the most striking thing from the climate strikers' demands (as itemised in this @rcolvile thread) is that when you combine them the logical consequence is zero or even negative global economic growth 3/
Read 16 tweets
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Ed Conway
@EdConwaySky
Remember this from Wed? John Bercow upbraiding the Chancellor for grandstanding rather than getting on with the spending review. Tempting as it is to dismiss this as yet more eccentric behaviour in Parliament it sheds light on a worrying problem with the way we run the economy 1/
The reason the speaker told @sajidjavid off was because he was behaving as if he was giving a Budget speech, giving a long preamble abt the state of the economy and making political points. But this wasn't a Budget. It was a Spending Review. The two things are very different 2/
Most obviously, Budgets are for taxes and broader economic policy. Spending reviews are purely for departmental spending. Which isn't even all spending (see the pie chart here). But the other big difference is the level of scrutiny... 3/
Read 14 tweets

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Lewis Goodall
@lewis_goodall
PSEPHOLOGY CORNER 2: The Remain Alliance?

The Lib Dems , Greens and Plaid have entered into the biggest piece of electoral pact since the SDP/Liberal alliance.

But how much difference might it make? (Thread)
There a few seats on the list they’ve published where the result is close enough *and* one of the parties is second *and* one of the other parties stood last time where this alliance could obviously make a difference. Cheltenham, for example. The Lib Dem’s are only 2,500 away.
The Greens didn’t even get 2% of the vote but in a tight contest, every vote helps. Of course, it doesn’t mean all 943 votes will go to the Libs, indeed, greens are generally more likely to favour Corbyn’s Lab as a second preference - but it’s got to be a good thing in general.
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Campaign for Accountability
@Accountable_Org
#NEW: CfA files ethics complaint against Florida State Rep. Scott Plakon for failing to disclose real estate empire. Read our press release here: 1/6
campaignforaccountability.org/watchdog-files…
CfA called on the Florida Commission on Ethics to investigate whether State Rep. Scott Plakon violated the Florida Constitution and state ethics laws by failing to properly disclose information about his myriad business interests on his personal financial disclosure forms. 2/6
Rep. Plakon is a member of the Florida House of Representatives, and he has represented his current seat, District 29, since 2014. As a member of the Florida Legislature, Rep. Plakon is required to file an annual Form 6, Full and Public Disclosure of Financial Interests. 3/6
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Mike Lee
@AgronomyUkraine
We are trying to reclaim good quality land in the former Soviet Union, much of which has a major weed legacy from long term abandonment, and we use glyphosate to help us, which got me thinking.
Glyphosate is a none-selective, systemic herbicide which means it’s particularly good at controlling perennial weeds but only when there is no crop present as it doesn’t differentiate between crop and weed (it does with GM crops but I’ll come to that in a minute).
We use it between (none GM) crops to help eradicate problem perennial weeds, I’m not sure how we could viably reclaim abandoned land without glyphosate.
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John Pfaff
@JohnFPfaff
1. The 2018 Nat’l Crime Victimization Survey is out. And here’s the main take-away.

Violent victimization is up (except for robbery), but with only one exception the increases are NOT statistically significant.

The one increase is for rape, tho, and it’s big: it almost doubled.
2. The NCVS measures crime in various ways: total incidents, total victims (the prevalence) and just “serious” violence.

For all three measures, we see roughly similar patterns: robbery down, other non-rape violence up but weakly, rape up by about 66% to 80%.
3. Now the NCVS is just that—a survey—so there’s sampling error. That’s why the report acknowledges that the increases outside of rape are not statistically significant.*

But here are the standard errors. The rape increase is statistically significant.
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FaceTheCuban© SirLRO🎈{Interactive}
@FaceTheCuban
...#Positivity is in each & everyone of us. Let it flow more often, makes a better day. #SirLRO
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~ #Positivity there is no need for deprecating others with words, when it calls for~there is a need for compassion, it’s in you, #SirLRO
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Anthony W. Orlando
@AnthonyWOrlando
Why are so many Millennials struggling to buy their first home? @hlee82, @ProfDowellMyers, @GaryDeanPainter, Johanna Thunell, & @julieziss have an answer in the Journal of Housing Economics… sciencedirect.com/science/articl… 1/
Half of young renters say they can’t afford the down payment and closing costs to get a mortgage, so how do first-time home buyers overcome the constraint? 2/
One possibility: One-fourth of first-time home buyers receive a gift, usually from their parents, to help with the down payment. So…how much difference does it make? 3/
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