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For UK folks on the YouGov "MRP poll":

In 2017, YouGov did well because their poll had the *overall topline vote* about right, showing only a narrow Tory margin. Their MRP model did NOT do a particularly good job of translating votes into seats, however.
yougov.co.uk/topics/politic…
Many other pollsters had the Tories winning big. So YouGov deserves much credit for getting the topline number roughly right.

The MRP/model part itself (translating votes->seats) was meh though. If YouGov had Tories up 10 like other polls, their seat # would have been way off.
So the news in YouGov's poll tonight is that it has Tories up 11 UK (fairly typical of recent polls). It's no surprise that Tories would expect to win lots of seats if that's the final margin. But MRP is not magic. It's an OK/reasonable technique but its powers are overstated.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Iowa 2016 had a lot of elements that you might have expected to produce a big swing in national polls. It was a decent-sized upset for one thing, relative to surveys in Iowa that showed Trump ahead of Cruz. But it didn't move the needle all that much.
There were some complicated reasons for this. Party elites didn't love Cruz. Rubio picked up some of the surge that "should" have gone to Cruz, then blew it in the debate. And Trump may have created some ambiguity in the outcome by accusing Cruz of fraud.
But there's not just uncertainty in the outcome for Iowa; there's also uncertainty in whether the bounce Iowa produces will be large, small, or (unlikely) nonexistent.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
First new New Hampshire poll in a while out this morning. Updated 538 average there:

Buttigieg 18.1
Sanders 17.3
Biden 15.8
Warren 13.2

Gabbard 4.9
Yang 3.9
Bloomberg 2.8
Steyer 2.8
Klobuchar 2.8
Booker 1.7
Williamson 0.5
Castro 0.3
Delaney 0.2
Bennet 0.1
This is Buttigieg's first lead in New Hampshire in our average, although it's obviously not much of a lead. It's close enough that if any the top 4 won Iowa, they'd probably vault to the top. With that said, NH can produce surprises (see e.g. Clinton 2008).
Also, I unintentionally omitted Deval Patrick in the first tweet in this thread. He's at 0.1 percent in our New Hampshire average.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Bernie's chances can be improving even if he isn't moving up in the polls much (he probably has moved up by a point or two, though maybe not more than that). It's more than there's *nothing standing in way of his winning* given where the other candidates are now.
What would block Bernie's path?

—If he were far enough behind the nat'l frontrunner (Biden) that even an IA/NH bounce might not catch him up.

—If he were way behind in IA.

—If he were way behind another candidate (e.g. Warren) in his "lane".

NONE of these are true right now.
To be sure, like all trendy narratives, this one is probably a *bit* exaggerated. Sanders still needs several things to go right, probably starting with a win in IA. And whether the party will unify around him if we wins early on is an open question. But it's not a bad position!
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Ragnorakishere
@ragnorakishere
Wow Jolyon Maugham wants to keep the #ToriesOut by supporting the Green candidate in #Stroud take a look at the 2017 result bit.ly/2LyiXbI Now think about this! Maugham is an advisor for a #Tory Think Tank Bright Blue bit.ly/2roWgQp
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Hilary #ABTV - all 3 versions
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⚢🌸Sakura No Seirei🌸🏳️‍⚧️
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Good morning and welcome to another #Brexit thread

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Filomena Rocha
@Filomen03258997
19. Assange a true HERO. The Siege & Injustice with Julian Assange

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WeThePeople #ForTheMany #DangerousHero #JC4PM2019
@gaurangmorjaria
#poll If there was a Snap General Election, who would you vote for?

(For other parties, please vote them in comments)

Please RT once Voted! 😃
1997: Blair 13.5mn votes
1997-2015: Blairites/ Others lost 180 seats & 5mn voters
2017: Corbyn 12.8mn votes/ Gained 32

2019:

add first time voters (75% of those who vote, vote for Labour)

Subtract 2% of the population, 80% of whom vote Tories!

Labour Landslide on the cards!
Lab’s share of vote could be 14.5+mn

Once we take into account first time voters- 16 or under at 2017

first time voters -never voted before, disenchanted by Blair years whilst

removing Tory support -loss of voters due to old age

=> Lab will gain 100+ seats from Tories alone
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@DrCilona
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